Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s election points to political limbo The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia: inflation pressures to drive further rate hikes With inflation pressures building, labour cost growth remaining high and credit growth strong, the conditions appear to be in place for the Czech central bank (CNB) to continue its tightening cycle at... 22nd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: pressure to hike rates will continue to build The reintroduction of fuel price caps in Poland has eased immediate pressure on policymakers to hike interest rates, which had looked like a close call for the November rate setting meeting. Given the... 6th October 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surveys point to robust Q3 in Central Europe The survey data for Central Europe published this week point to slightly weaker activity in September than in July or August, but it still looks like regional GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was around... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Key questions on Russia’s Duma election Russians head to the polls from Friday in the country’s first parliamentary election since the invasion of Ukraine. While the outcome is not in doubt, the result will offer clues about public... 16th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 GDP shows clearer signs of rebalancing Turkey’s GDP expanded by 1.1% q/q in Q2, its fastest pace in a year, but beneath the surface there were clear signs of softening domestic demand, with household consumption and imports both... 31st August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q2 rebound doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The rapid recovery in Israel’s GDP in Q2 confirms that the start of the Iran war had only a minor and temporary effect on the economy, and GDP growth now looks on course to exceed 4% over this year as... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economy still struggling to rebalance While Turkey has come through the energy shock without major balance of payments strains, the trade-off facing policymakers between reducing inflation and restoring external balance is getting starker... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania's economy faces a long road to recovery Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s energy crisis casts cloud over recovery Low water levels in the Danube are forcing Hungary to take its nuclear power plant offline, prompting officials to urge cuts in energy consumption. The scale of the macroeconomic effects will, of... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
