Commodities Update Commodities not out of the woods In line with our forecasts, the prices of many commodities have fallen by more than 10% in recent days, with the exception of gold. We continue to believe that the prices of industrial metals and oil... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf economies withstand an oil price shock? The drop in the oil price over the past two weeks has led to concerns that the Gulf States will have to scale back their recent spending plans. Admittedly, the current budget commitments are likely to... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Financial market turbulence puts economic growth at risk The possible adverse effects from sharply falling equity prices and lower commodity prices on wealth and confidence have increased the risks that Canada's economic recovery might falter during the... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold’s sudden drop yesterday a sign of things to come? Amid widespread market turmoil yesterday, the factors which have been driving the price of gold higher caused it to hit an all-time high of just over $1,680 per ounce. Later on in the day, though... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Equity markets signal trouble ahead for commodities The prices of many commodities have held up comparatively well in the past few weeks, despite the rout in financial markets. Nonetheless, the sharp decline in prices of commodity-related equities... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields plummet despite debt spat The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen very sharply since the end of the second quarter. The principal reason for the drop appears to be a reassessment of the prospects for monetary policy in light... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US debt deal is not the end of the road for gold’s bull run Despite the deal to extend the US debt limit, the price of gold hit record highs late yesterday. We think this makes sense. Although the deal may cut investors’ aversion to risk, it signals the onset... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strike action at mines distracts from demand woes Concern over ongoing and potential strike action at mines has helped send the price of a number of commodities higher in the past month, especially industrial metals. In our view, the attention placed... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply disruptions cause prices to rally Most commodity prices rose in July, especially those which had fallen sharply over the previous two months. This occurred despite weakening demand prospects. Instead, supply-side developments were a... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: At the mercy of oil prices Fiscal profligacy and a lack of prudence in managing commodity revenues have left Ecuador highly exposed to a downturn in global oil prices. Limited financing options are likely to turn up the heat on... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is Latin America wasting its commodities windfall? The fact that Latin America is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the region itself. In the near term the big... 29th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are all commodities safe havens? The prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about US government debt. But other commodities have also held up rather better than might have been expected... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA pledge should help cap oil prices The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided not to announce a further tapping of oil from strategic reserves today after the 30-day review of the release of 60m barrels last month. However, the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI signals Chinese demand still losing momentum The ongoing deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for July should offset at least some of the reassurance provided to commodity markets by the seemingly robust official data on... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan end-game to knock at least $10 off oil prices We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
