US Economics Focus What do higher commodity prices mean for the US? The recent sharp rises in agricultural commodity prices will boost inflation a little, help keep real consumption growth subdued and narrow the trade deficit. But the gains in prices seen so far are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the markets running ahead of themselves? Asset prices of all types have surged following the announcement of additional QE from the US Fed, raising concerns about bubbles. The focus of these concerns has typically been on financial markets... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to drop to $60pb in 2011 We continue to expect oil prices to fall back towards $60 per barrel (pb) by the end of next year as the dollar recovers and global demand ultimately disappoints, even though this would take them... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to get a near-term boost from higher oil prices In light of the recent upward revision to our near-term profile for oil prices, we have pushed up our Russian growth and inflation forecasts for 2011. But the economy remains vulnerable to the fall in... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Higher commodity prices to bring fresh set of policy challenges We have nudged up our near-term projections for commodity prices in response to recent rises and as a result have revisited our forecasts for Latin America. Growth is still likely to slow next year... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity super-cycle, or bubble? The recent strength in the prices of industrial metals and oil has revived talk of a “super-cycle” for these commodities where strong demand from emerging economies drives a multi-year bull market. We... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: crunch time approaching for the CBR Russian banks have become more willing to lend in recent months. Much still depends on oil prices, but a strengthening banking sector raises the chances that the rapid expansion of the monetary base... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fears of currency debasement buoy the euro The strength of the euro against the dollar in September coincided with a change in investors’ perceptions about the relative outlook for unconventional monetary policy on either side of the Atlantic... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Downside risks to oil mean ruble trouble here to stay Today’s slide in the ruble is all the more surprising given that oil prices have been rising over the past few weeks. With oil prices still likely to fall over the next year, we are sticking to our... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Food price rises shouldn’t prompt policy changes Tomorrow’s inflation figures are likely to show that a further rise in food prices stopped headline inflation from falling more sharply – or at all – in August. However, we doubt that rising food... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine makes the right move on gas prices Today’s announcement that Ukraine will raise consumer gas prices by as much as 50% from 1st August suggests that the government is serious about the reforms needed to keep the country’s IMF programme... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for commodities? The sharp falls in many commodity prices over the past month reflect a mix of pressures and worries, some of which are temporary but most of which are not. We continue to expect further falls by the... 20th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s surging copper imports? The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again. 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas deal boosts prospects in Ukraine, but risks remain Today’s gas deal with Russia is undoubtedly a boost for the Ukrainian economy’s near-term prospects, and keeps it on course for an impressive bounce back this year. But with the new government yet to... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
