Global Markets Update Oil prices still set to drop back in the second half The fact that oil prices have remained firm despite the appreciation in the dollar has prompted us to raise our end-2010 and end-2011 forecasts from $50 per barrel (pb) to $60pb. But these numbers are... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010 The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is happening to Chinese commodity demand? Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current... 26th November 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodity currencies facing headwinds Expectations have been growing that the central banks of Canada, Norway and New Zealand will soon join Australia on what is thought to be a prolonged tightening cycle. This has been supporting the... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it matter which currency oil is priced in? The re-pricing of oil in some unit other than the dollar should, on its own, have no direct effect on the value of the US currency. It might accelerate the rebalancing of official reserves away from... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gas is too cheap relative to oil We expect further falls in US natural gas prices in the near term. However, the incentive for end-users to substitute gas for oil has rarely been higher, which will eventually feed through to higher... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Commodities – beware the dragon’s burp The need to feed the supposedly insatiable demand of the Chinese economic dragon is frequently cited as a reason to expect ever-higher commodity prices. However, investors also need to beware of the... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How credible is OPEC's new oil price target? OPEC’s informal target of $75-80 per barrel (pb) might be a reasonable starting point for an assumption about the medium-term outlook for oil prices, but it is certainly not the last word. Our view is... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus A chill wind blows east We expect the Emerging European economy to shrink by 3% this year, with no meaningful recovery until 2011. What’s more, further IMF bailouts look likely over the coming months as a number of the... 29th January 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What impact has speculation had on commodity prices? Commodity prices across all major classes have experienced three distinct phases: first, a period of prolonged broad price stability, followed by sharp rises in prices, and then sharp falls. Changes... 22nd December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil prices? Many of the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the commodity bubble have recently slashed their oil price forecasts. We are still happy with our long-held view that crude will average $50 per barrel... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How low could oil prices go? Oil prices have fallen to within a whisker of our target of $50 per barrel (for Brent), which we had expected to see in the first quarter of next year. For now we are leaving our forecast for average... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How much has speculation driven commodity prices? This piece looks at several aspects of commodity market speculation that are often invoked to support the conventional wisdom which asserts that speculation has not been a driving factor in commodity... 3rd November 2008 · 1 min read
