Commodities Chart Pack Markets clutching at straws Commodity prices ended November little changed, thanks to the technical rebound in WTI and the recovery in risk assets generally late in the month. The markets have taken the view that the cut in the... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar price to drop another 20% in 2012 Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer and exporter, has revised down its sugar production estimate for 2011/12 due to bad weather. However, ample global stockpiles and improved harvests in other... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese slowdown adds to global concerns China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI for November fell back markedly, to well below 50, raising fears of a hard landing in the largest commodity consumer. We still believe that a hard landing in China... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Reform agenda must keep up with commodity boom In a recent visit to the UK, the President of Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, underlined his ambitious plans for the expansion of his country’s burgeoning commodities sector. But while that may support... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread returning to reality The gap between the cost of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is finally closing, but the episode has been another example of how speculative pressures can... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is there any upside from the euro-zone crisis? Our baseline scenario is that an escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone will contribute to further large falls in almost all commodity prices over the next year or so, with gold and silver among... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much might conflict with Iran add to oil prices? The price of a barrel of Brent could spike from current levels of around $114 to anywhere between $135 and $210 in the unlikely event of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US or... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can tin producers wait long enough for higher prices? Tin is caught in a battle between Indonesian producers, who have halted exports as they wait for the metal’s price to rise from $21,500 to $25,000 per tonne, and consumers hoping exports will resume... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rice prices to drop sharply as Thai floods recede Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, has lost up to a quarter of its main rice harvest due to recent floods. However, ample global stockpiles, improved harvests in other major rice producing... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities (Oct.) The recovery in China’s commodity imports continued to gather pace in October. We remain of the view that this is mainly due to importers restocking, encouraged by lower prices, rather than any... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK recession risks weigh on markets While the twists and turns of the euro-zone debt crisis have continued to have a key bearing on UK market movements, markets also appear to be concerned that the UK economy is on the brink of... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will lower commodity prices rescue the world economy? We are forecasting some pretty substantial falls in commodity prices over the next few years, which should provide some support for global growth. However, the experience of 2008 and 2009 shows that... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro crisis likely to drag commodity prices much lower Our already low end-2013 forecasts for the prices of a range of major commodities, including Brent crude ($75 per barrel), copper ($5,000 per tonne) and corn (500 cents per bushel), assume that the... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Fragile recovery already faltering The recovery in most commodity prices in October now seems like ancient history. The hopes generated by the apparent pick-up in Chinese demand, renewed talk of a third round of quantitative easing... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
