Commodities Update Rice prices to fall another 20% in 2012 The acceleration of the rice purchase scheme by the Thai government and setting of minimum export prices by the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) have led many analysts to argue that the price of... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese copper imports hit record high in December China’s overall imports of commodities weakened slightly in December but the fourth quarter of last year as a whole was still strong. Indeed, imports of copper hit a record high last month. However... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market rally does not alter Canada's outlook Last week's market rally in commodity prices, which was already flagging before the week ended, does nothing to alter our view on Canada's economic outlook. After growing by an estimated 2.4% in 2011... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update "Tail risks" to oil prices still skewed to the downside The two greatest “tail risks” to oil prices this year are an escalation of tensions between Iran and the West (on the upside) and a worsening of the crisis in the euro-zone (on the downside). In... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More rollercoaster than super-cycle Commodity prices are ending 2011 with a whimper. Over the year as a whole the only major commodities to show significant increases are Brent crude and gold. Most components of the closely-watched S&P... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are falling copper stocks a reason to be bullish? Declining stocks on global metal exchanges are often given as a reason to expect prices to rise. However, we are sceptical that the recent decline in reported copper stocks is due to strong end user... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak PMIs highlight downside risks to metals prices The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone remained well below 50 in December. Despite the prospect of further monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC’s quota hike all but irrelevant to oil price outlook OPEC’s decision today to raise the official target for the cartel’s oil output to close to the current level of production will make no real difference on the ground, especially as it reportedly did... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields fall further despite growing fiscal fears UK gilt yields have continued to fall over the last month, despite growing fiscal fears and the limited boost to gilt prices provided so far by the Monetary Policy Committee’s further round of asset... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese commodity imports are not set to last The volume of China’s commodity imports rose markedly in November, bolstered by weaker prices spurring restocking, probably instead of any upturn in final demand. Indeed, recent steps by the Chinese... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC sidelined as global slowdown offsets fears over Iran The regular OPEC meeting on 14th December will be overshadowed by the crisis in the euro-zone and tensions with Iran. Our oil price forecasts give more weight to the fall-out from a further escalation... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum’s low to be determined by rand and euro-zone We expect the price of platinum to fall from $1,520 per ounce to $1,300 in the next year due to ailing industrial demand. However, this will probably prove to be a cyclical low unless the rand weakens... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A chink of light at the end of a torrid month Growing stresses in the banking system fuelled by an escalation of the euro-zone crisis prompted the major central banks to announce measures aimed at enhancing their capacity to provide liquidity... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
