Commodities Update Euro-zone crisis leaves more upside for gold Gold’s spectacular rise over the past decade has seen its price climb from $256 per ounce in 2001 to more than $1,900 at its recent peak. After such a long bull market and some large daily falls in... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Operation Twist” mean for commodities? Any further easing from the US Fed will probably be limited to lengthening the maturity of its existing holdings of Treasury securities (“Operation Twist”) rather than a third round of outright... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall to $85 per barrel in 2012 The factors that we had thought would undermine oil prices over the course of the year have been gradually falling into place, namely slower growth both in advanced and emerging economies, a reduction... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's GDP continues to grow despite the social unrest Higher oil and manufacturing revenues helped to offset the decline in Bahrain’s services sector in the second quarter of this year. What’s more, although the country’s GDP grew by only 0.8% y/y in Q2... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Defying gravity The slowdown in the global economy and nervousness in financial markets undermined the prices of industrial metals and oil in August. Admittedly, these prices ended the month on a more positive note... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will a fall in the oil price affect Saudi Arabia’s spending plans? Concerns that the global economy may fall into recession again have increased the likelihood of a drop in the oil price, which in turn poses some downside risks to Saudi Arabia’s economy. Indeed, a... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's public finances not as strong as they seem At first sight Russia’s public finances appear a picture of health when compared to those in the developed world. But a growing dependence on high and rising oil prices as a source of revenue is a... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to drop back on QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the Fed. However, we doubt these hopes will be realised anytime soon. What’s more, even if... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Any support from China to prove temporary The stabilisation in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for August, along with (surely premature) hopes of additional monetary stimulus in the US, is providing some temporary support for... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan regime change to undermine oil prices further The market response today has been muted, but we still think that regime change in Libya could ultimately knock $10 from the price of a barrel of Brent. 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold has further to rise despite likely Venezuelan sales In isolation, the news that the Venezuelan government is nationalising its gold industry and planning to repatriate its overseas gold reserves might be seen as negative for the price of the metal... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? The recent bounce in oil prices, at least prior to today’s drops, had been interpreted by many as strong evidence of underlying tightness in the global market for crude. In contrast, we continue to... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold price set to exceed platinum by record amount Last week, the price of gold exceeded that of platinum, albeit only temporarily, for the first time since December 2008. In our view, this rare occurrence will be repeated and the spread will widen to... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What consumers need most is lower commodity prices It is often assumed that the fiscal squeeze is driving the current weakness of consumer spending and that government measures – such as a VAT cut – are all that are needed to get the consumer recovery... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia would benefit from a further fall in oil prices Oil prices have slipped back on fears that the world economy may be heading for another downturn. What’s more, our in-house view is that oil prices have further to fall. The impact in emerging Asia of... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports remain weak China’s commodity imports rose m/m in July, particularly those of copper and soybeans. Overall, this was more a reflection of weak imports in June and to a lesser extent the entire first half of the... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
