Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge in September While the headlines have focused on the weak value data, the pick-up in China’s industrial import volumes suggests that ongoing fiscal stimulus, notably infrastructure spending, and earlier price... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC’s oil output rises, but supply elsewhere set to stall OPEC’s oil production rebounded a little last month, but slower growth in non-OPEC supplies and strong growth in demand should still help prices to rise over the next few years. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s strikes to provide further boost to gold price While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Sep.) September data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil stocks rose to the highest monthly level on record. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Digging deeper into China’s coal demand We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Further evidence that sentiment is bottoming out We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. Indeed... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The turn is nigh (if it hasn’t already happened) We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors start warming towards agriculturals again Cuts to production forecasts and other supply concerns have resulted in a sharp rise in the prices of a number of agricultural commodities since the beginning of September. In tandem, futures curves... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Sep. – 1st Oct.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugarcane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was back on track in the second half of September after... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Consensus is moving towards a copper deficit next year Planned and unplanned cuts to copper supply now make it increasingly likely that the market will be in deficit next year (and possibly this year), even with very subdued demand projections. This... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Aug.) South Africa PGM production and sales continued to fall in August as low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. We expect production growth to continue to slow over the remainder of the year... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What’s holding back gold? The price of gold has rallied, helped by the Fed’s reluctance to raise US interest rates, but still looks likely to end the year some way below January’s peak of around $1,300 per ounce. However, gold... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week, helped by a fall in refinery utilisation and a small rebound in US oil production. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
