Commodities Update El Niño to keep rice prices on the boil With El Niño threatening to reduce rice harvests in South-east Asia and the world stocks-to-consumption ratio expected to hit the lowest level since 2006, we think rice prices will move higher. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could a La Niña next year affect agriculturals? With the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the current El Niño could see a marked decline during the first quarter of next year, there is a significant risk that La Niña could develop... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas market vulnerable to a correction if cold weather hits High stocks and forecasts of a mild winter have driven down US natural gas prices recently, but given slowing production growth, rising demand and the unpredictability of the weather, we think that... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch The price of silver to outshine gold in 2016 Silver’s prospects remain closely tied to those of gold, with expectations for US monetary policy the biggest catalyst for changes in prices recently. The upside for silver has also been capped by... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Falling mine supply to boost zinc prices in 2016 Scheduled closure of some large depleted mines coupled with producer cutbacks in response to low prevailing prices will lead to a relative shortage of zinc concentrates and will curb the recent... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of palm oil to rise as El Niño hits output With the possibility of this year’s strong El Niño tightening supplies in the months ahead, we now think that the price of palm oil is likely to rise as we move into next year. 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose for the fifth consecutive time last week, but the latest increase was less than half the previous week’s as net crude oil imports fell and inputs to refineries rebounded... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies may have found a floor Our forecast that the prices of many natural resources will edge a little higher over the next couple of years suggests that the downside for commodity currencies will be limited even after the Fed... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What, if anything, can futures curves tell us? While there has been much media coverage of the recent falls in oil and copper prices, the simultaneous slide in the prices of lead and zinc has not been so well documented. In this Metals & Mining... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US interest rates just one factor driving commodity prices The conventional wisdom is that the outlook for US interest rates will be critical in determining the prospects for commodity prices over the next few years. Indeed, some commentators seem to base... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Have fossil fuels burnt out? Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update REE supply cuts set to push up prices Low rare earths (REE) prices seem to be pushing up China’s exports as previously-delayed purchases are ramped up. However, recent pledges by a number of Chinese REE producers that they would smelt... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Sep.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong rose in September for the third consecutive month. We expect total imports by China to continue their upward trend in the remainder of the year and imports... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Efforts to restrict gold imports likely to have limited success India’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports, due to be rolled out next month, are likely to have mixed results. The Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme’s easy accessibility and more transparent... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound devalued, likely to fall further The Egyptian pound was devalued, albeit modestly, over the past few weeks and, while the central bank has brought this process to a halt, we think a further fall in the currency is likely over the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
