Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities keep their cool Commodity prices were remarkably stable in January, considering the flurry of executive orders by the new US president, Donald Trump. Data showing that China ended 2016 on a strong note was a key... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Agricultural prices to come under pressure in 2017 For the most part, the prices of agricultural commodities in US dollar terms rose in 2016, owing to a combination of weather-related supply disruptions, rising oil prices and some weakness in the US... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Will the oil market rebalance in 2017? There are a number of risks which could see oil prices slump back below $40 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will dip a... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Metals to take a breather in 2017 While we had always been positive on the outlook for metals in 2016, even we were surprised by the scale of the rally. Indeed, we are now concerned that the prevailing optimism about demand for... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Industrials continue to do well The prices of the more industrial commodities generally fared better this week, with a few notable exceptions in nickel and palladium. Optimism about demand continues to support prices. Indeed, this... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Optimism prevails, for now For the most part, commodity prices have started the year strongly, buoyed by persistent optimism about demand and some weakness in the US dollar. However, we are concerned that, in some cases, prices... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Global Steel Production (Dec. & 2016) After a weak start to the year, global steel production recovered and was growing briskly at 5.5% y/y in December, encouraged by high prevailing prices. In our view, the steel market is more than... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline grew last month as demand for both fuels remained weak. 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Nov./Dec.) China’s refinery output continued to grow in December, encouraged by higher prices and signs of a more general revival in the economy. However, we think optimism about demand will fade over the course... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec. & 2016) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.8% y/y last month, up from 3% y/y in November, led by a whopping 14.2% y/y jump in China’s... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports reflect mine supply trends The pattern of China’s trade in industrial metals and ores in 2016 was determined in part by trends in global mine supply. Lower mine output of some ores was a factor curbing imports, but higher US... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices take a breather The prices of most commodities eased back this week. Agricultural commodities fared slightly better, primarily on the back of weather-related concerns about supply. Data released on Friday confirming... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Dec.) China’s activity data for December show the economy finishing the year on a strong note. That said, there were signs of somewhat slower growth in output last month and the downturn in state-led... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook How will markets deal with President Trump? We expect monetary policy in the US to be tightened by more than investors seem to be anticipating, but agree that in other major developed economies it is likely to remain very loose. With this in... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Chinese oil demand to help rebalance the market Despite a slowdown in economic growth in China from its high at the end of 2016, we expect the country’s oil demand to rise this year. 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
