OPEC Watch Angola, Libya and Nigeria push OPEC’s output higher Further increases in output from Libya and Nigeria will make it more difficult for OPEC to reach their output quota of 32.5m bpd. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy The recent agreement reached by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has prompted speculation of a major shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy, but we remain cautious. After all, the Kingdom has... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices jump on the prospect of output cuts The price of oil rose sharply as oil producers surpassed market expectations by agreeing to cut supply by 1.8m barrels a day from January. Meanwhile, industrial metals prices rose further as investors... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus on the Fed statement and Trump’s reaction The prices of most industrial metals surged this week, largely due to increased investor interest. Strong China’s imports in November and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US further buoyed... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Limited upside for platinum prices in 2017 Platinum has substantially underperformed its sister metals – palladium and rhodium – this year as its higher correlation with gold has seen its price fall sharply since the US presidential election... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale The Russian government’s sale of part of its stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore late yesterday has raised questions about what the deal means for sanctions, the currency... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack OPEC takes centre stage OPEC’s confirmation that it would cut production next year in an attempt to reduce the surplus in the market caused oil prices to surge at the end of November. The surprise victory for Donald Trump in... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) A slump in PGM output drove South Africa’s total mine production lower in October, after tentative signs of a recovery in September. While this is not good news for South Africa’s economy, it is... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes jumped in November, despite markedly higher US dollar prices and a weaker renminbi. Trends in activity suggest that import demand will remain robust in the near-term... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil stocks fell last week despite a large rebound in net imports. However, gasoline stocks surged as output from refineries increased and demand dropped. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy holds steady in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3 and was on an improving trend towards the end of the quarter, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investor enthusiasm buoying the prices of industrials Investors have been encouraged by stronger economic data out of China and the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US and have significantly increased their exposure to industrial metals. Conversely... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What higher and lower oil prices would mean for Russia The volatility in oil prices over the past couple of months has prompted clients to ask us how higher and lower oil prices could affect the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Focus, we use several... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Robust supply to weigh on soybeans prices October’s rise in retail sales and November’s decent euro-zone PMIs are consistent with an acceleration of GDP growth in Q4. But with Italy’s “No” vote heightening political risks, the prospects for... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly OPEC seal the deal Oil prices surged this week as OPEC surpassed expectations by confirming production cuts and announcing quotas for member countries. Given OPEC’s poor record on compliance, we are sceptical that the... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
