Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia unlikely to take strong action to boost oil prices The oil cartel, OPEC, is likely to reach some sort of face-saving deal to cut oil output at its meeting next week, but we think claims that Saudi Arabia has abandoned its strategy of protecting its... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show a 3.3% y/y rise in global steel output in October, as higher Asian output more than offset lower production at US steelmakers. After a... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (Sep./Oct.) China’s refinery output continued to grow in October, bolstered by rising prices. However, we think producers are overestimating demand, in which case production could fall back in coming months. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.5% y/y in October, boosted by higher y/y production in India, China and Russia. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Non-oil economy recovers a bit as oil woes continue The improved performance of Nigeria’s non-oil sector is a very positive sign. But with oil output likely to fall yet again in Q4, it is too early to call the bottom of Nigeria’s economic downturn. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities take stock After last week’s wild swings, the prices of most commodities stabilised this week. That said, positive comments from OPEC and Russian officials on the prospects for output cuts gave oil prices a... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but interest rates to remain low Inflation is set to continue rising across Emerging Asia as the effects of past falls in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. However, we doubt the increase will be large enough to worry most... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch OPEC likely to do just enough OPEC’s next official meeting on 30th November is being viewed by the markets as a make-or-break opportunity. A strong, credible deal to cap supply could put a floor under prices and help to rebalance... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trump victory proves divisive Industrial metals prices were already rising ahead of Donald Trump’s election to the US Presidency, but his victory appeared to provide new grounds for optimism as markets focussed on his plans for... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A recovery in net imports of crude oil helped to fill stocks last week, whilst higher output from refineries boosted inventories of petroleum products. 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold down, but not out? Right now the decision to nudge up our forecasts for the gold price in the wake of Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US presidential election may not look like a smart one. Indeed, the price of the... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector supports stabilisation of Saudi economy The latest figures from our Saudi GDP Tracker suggest that the Kingdom’s economy stabilised in Q3, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. Some more timely indicators have raised fresh... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors turn positive on metals The prices of industrial metals have risen strongly in the last month on optimism about demand and a surge in investor buying. In contrast, sentiment has turned negative in the oil market as investors... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) China’s industrial production held steady in October, but metals-intensive sectors continued to do well and there was a sharp rebound in construction starts. That said, our analysis suggests that the... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
