Global Economics Update Outlook for oil prices still benign for world economy OPEC is unlikely to sustain the production cuts which it implemented in January, but we expect a combination of rising global demand and increased US shale production to keep prices fairly stable for... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC reins in production OPEC’s oil production dropped sharply in January as the group’s new output quota came into force. However, Iran, Libya and Nigeria continued to increase output. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Uncertain ore supply to support nickel prices Nickel ore supply is likely to fall this year which underpins our forecast of a rise in refined nickel prices. But the scale of any rally will be constrained by high prevailing stocks. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Yellen’s testimony unlikely to be a market mover Most commodity prices rose this week despite a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. The latest data on Chinese trade, released today, show that commodity import volumes jumped in January but this... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Time to sound a note of caution Commodity prices continued their strong run in the early weeks of 2017, but we are concerned that investor optimism may fade in the months ahead. Prices have been buoyed by the pick-up in China’s... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain robust China’s commodity import volumes jumped in January, despite a further fall in the renminbi vis-à-vis the US dollar. However, the most recent activity data show that the Chinese economy, while still... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will a stronger dollar prevent oil prices from rising further? Strong growth in demand for oil and a reduction in stocks should push prices higher over the rest of this year. However, rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar are likely to act as headwinds... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Dec. & 2016) South Africa’s overall mine production fell in 2016, with all the main metals seeing a drop in output. The PGM market appears finally to be tightening but we think that it will take some time to rise... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories rose by a near record level last week. But stocks of gasoline were drawn down a little. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand rose 2% y/y in 2016 to reach a three-year high of 4,309 tonnes. This increase was predominantly the result of strong safe-haven demand in the first half of the year. In 2017, we... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US foreign policy is a major upside risk for oil prices Donald Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, is likely to have a bigger impact on oil prices in the near term than changes to domestic energy policies. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Mixed news for commodity markets Most commodity prices took a bit of a hit this morning as China raised its short-term interest rate, in a clear sign that supporting growth is no longer the primary immediate goal of policymakers... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prices start the year on a strong note The prices of most metals rose last month (see Chart), buoyed by ongoing investor buying and expectations of strong demand in China and the US. The decision by the Fed to keep rates on hold in January... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil prices have a quiet start to 2017 After finishing 2016 on a high, oil prices were relatively stable in January as investors were waiting to see whether OPEC is complying with its deal to cut output. Elsewhere, a jump in economic... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks were on the move in January There have been some large moves in stocks, notably in Shanghai, over the last month. Stockbuilding was evident in China which may have been a symptom of weak demand, but we think it is more likely to... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose by more than expected last week. But the focus remains on OPEC. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
