Commodities Update Mixed messages from China’s PMIs The official and unofficial May manufacturing PMIs for China told somewhat different stories. However, we are inclined to put more weight on the unofficial PMI, which fell for the third successive... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rising supply and weak demand to weigh on coal prices Coal prices have been supported recently by strong global economic growth. However, a slowing Chinese economy, rising supply and intense competition from cheap natural gas and renewable power mean... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch As good as it gets for Chinese steel Chinese steel prices have been on a roller-coaster since the start of this year, as investor sentiment on the outlook for demand waxed and waned. In this Metals Watch, we take an in-depth look at the... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC deal renewed, but Saudi nods towards “exit strategy” OPEC’s decision this month to roll over its oil output cuts displayed a rare sense of cohesion from the cartel, but there are signs that de-facto leader Saudi Arabia is seeking an eventual end to... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC deal should allow Gulf to ease austerity further OPEC’s decision to rollover its oil output cuts didn’t come as a surprise, but the fact that calls for deeper cuts never even made it on to the table suggests that the Gulf economies are resistant to... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Apr.) The latest trade data show a jump in gold imports in the two largest consumers last month. India’s imports soared ahead of the forthcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST), while the strength of China’s... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices could fall sharply as sentiment turns Sentiment towards metals has deteriorated somewhat since the start of 2017. We had warned that this could happen as the large investor inflows into metals markets last year were mostly premised on... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks declined by the second largest amount so far this year, in spite of an increase in net imports. Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell, as demand for petroleum products surged. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could Trump’s budget mean for energy commodities? Donald Trump’s budget proposal is unlikely to dramatically alter the energy and oil markets, even if Congress does not significantly temper them. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 5% y/y rise in global steel production in April, down from 5.7% in the first quarter. Nonetheless, output was growing strongly in all the large producing... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch WASDE projections a mixed bag for agriculturals On the 11th May, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first projections for the 2017/18 season. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the USDA estimates and what they mean for our... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 6.4% y/y last month, up from 4.3% y/y in March. However, in month-on-month terms, production fell in... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on OPEC Commodity markets largely shrugged off soft activity and spending data out of China this week. Indeed, speculation around the outcome of next week’s OPEC meeting kept oil prices well supported. At the... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher stocks reflect the slowdown in China’s activity Stocks generally rose over the last month, which we think is consistent with broader macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in China’s activity in April and the recent weakness in most metals prices. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s slowdown mean for commodities? Growing evidence that China’s economy is decelerating has raised concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. While we acknowledge that China’s slowdown will be a powerful... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What would longer OPEC production cuts mean for oil prices? OPEC will almost certainly extend its production cuts by another nine months at its meeting next week. This Energy Watch looks at the impact that longer cuts in production would have on the oil market... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
