Commodities Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the... 22nd December 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update European gas prices to narrow gap with Asia next year We expect the unusually large discount in natural gas prices in Europe relative to those in Asia to shrink in the year ahead as the recovery in European demand gathers pace. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore market to swing into a surplus next year The price of iron ore has skyrocketed recently, to over $155 per tonne. However, we think that the price will decline in 2021 as demand in China weakens at a time of rising supply. 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The upside risks to our 2021 price forecasts We think that industrial metals prices will ease back in 2021 primarily because we expect growth in China’s demand to slow. However, we acknowledge that there are some upside risks to our price... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Taking stock of 2020 After rising steadily in the first half of the year as virus-containment measures curbed metals consumption, exchange stocks have since started to be drawn down. While this tallies with the robust... 15th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the outlook for coal-gas switching in Europe The substitution of coal for natural gas in European power generation has reversed in recent months, but we doubt that this marks the start of a new trend. Instead, we think that gas-based power in... 11th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Reviewing the risks to our 2021 oil price forecast We forecast that a substantial pick-up in oil demand in the second half of next year amidst a backdrop of constrained supply will push Brent oil prices to around $60 per barrel by end-2021. That said... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update The risks to our gold price forecast are to the downside We expect that the price of gold will trade at around $1,900 per ounce through 2021 as US real yields remain low. That said, we recognise that there are some key downside risks to our forecast. US... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in agriculturals to end, despite vaccine support We have now factored the rollout of an effective COVID-19 vaccine into our forecasts and, as a result, we are slightly more positive on the demand outlook for some agricultural commodities. That said... 8th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports to remain resilient China’s commodity import volumes should hold up well in the coming months in part because ongoing fiscal support should continue to boost domestic demand. 7th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Industrial metals price rally to fizzle out in 2021 Industrial metals prices have surged in recent weeks owing in large part to strong economic activity in China. And while prices should hold up during the first quarter next year, we think that they... 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are unreservedly positive for commodities China’s November PMI readings surprised on the upside but were consistent with the rally in industrial metals prices last month. Given that fiscal stimulus is ongoing and export growth remains robust... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Factoring a vaccine into our 2021 forecasts The prospect of effective COVID-19 vaccines has prompted us to raise our forecast of global economic activity in 2021, which has positive implications for commodity demand. We think oil demand and... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices to run out of steam, despite vaccine We think that the withdrawal of fiscal stimulus in China will offset any vaccine-induced boost to metals demand in 2021. And with supply bouncing back, we expect the prices of industrial metals to dip... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Vaccine to push Brent price to $60 by end-2021 With widespread vaccination against COVID-19 now increasingly likely, we are revising up our oil demand forecasts for next year. And while OPEC+ will probably raise output a little faster in response... 27th November 2020 · 3 mins read
