Commodities Update Supply constraint to support prices in the near term The deeper-than-expected production cuts by most OPEC+ member states and a revival in global demand means that the oil market is now likely to be in a bigger deficit than we had previously envisaged... 12th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold unlikely to fall much further While we are revising down our forecast, we don’t expect the price of gold to fall that much further this year. In our view, the recent decline in investment demand is unlikely to continue for long... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in metals prices reminiscent of post-GFC Industrial metals prices have soared recently to multi-year highs. But we think the rally is unsustainable. In fact, it cements our view that slowing growth in China will drag prices lower by end-2021... 10th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to moderate further China’s trade data for January-February show a clear deceleration in the growth of commodity imports. We expect this trend to persist over the course of this year as policy support is gradually... 8th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to miss out on the next commodity supercycle Slower demand growth and an abundance of supply will limit gains in oil prices over the long term, which we think will ultimately prevent oil from featuring in the next commodity supercycle. Join us... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Checking back in with our demand proxies Our in-house demand proxies offer further evidence that industrial metals prices are running ahead of the underlying fundamentals. This helps to explain the sharp drop in industrial metals prices... 4th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update US stimulus would be more positive for oil than metals President Biden’s ‘American Rescue Plan’ has been cited as one the key factors in the recent run-up in commodity prices. But even if it is passed in full, we think it will do little to boost commodity... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer China PMIs not a huge concern, for now China’s February PMI data were more subdued but still suggest that economic activity remains elevated, and the data elsewhere in Asia point to persistent strength in commodities demand in the coming... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Biden’s foreign policy and its energy market impact President Biden’s stance regarding international climate policy and the Iranian nuclear deal is very different from Donald Trump’s, but we are sceptical that he will be able to enact any significant... 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Recent price rally to boost aluminium output this year Global aluminium production rose in January. And with LME and ShFE prices near multi-year highs, we expect further gains in production this year, which will ultimately weigh on prices. 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update We expect commodities to underperform US equities Although we expect oil prices to rise a bit further this year, we doubt that we are in the early phase of a new “super cycle” in commodities. In fact, we project that the returns from commodities will... 19th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metal imports: three trends to keep an eye on With the first batch of Chinese trade data for 2021 not due for another few weeks, this Update outlines the key developments to look out for. Overall, we expect imports of refined metal to fall back... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US lumber prices to fall back from lofty heights We think that slower growth in US housing starts and increased supply will weigh on the price of US lumber over the coming quarters. That said, prices are likely to remain elevated relative to past... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tin’s rally to fizzle out by end-2021 Supply disruptions and strong electronics demand have lifted the tin price from its virus-induced lows. But we anticipate that a switch in consumer spending away from goods towards services once... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to make further gains Recent market moves have led us to revise up our end-2021 oil price forecast. But our story remains the same: one of resurgent demand later this year at a time of constrained supply. 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Demand to be primary driver of lower iron ore price Despite our relatively conservative forecast of supply growth, we still think that the price of iron ore will fall sharply this year owing to slower growth in China’s demand. 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
