Commodities Update Gold price to rise a little further by year-end Earlier this week, the gold price broke through the previous record set back in 2011 to reach an all-time high. Given that we now expect real yields to continue to grind lower, we have revised upwards... 7th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s industrial commodity import volumes to fall China’s industrial import volumes rose in July, which is consistent with the recovery in economic activity and opportunistic stockpiling at low prices. While final commodity demand will remain strong... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US crude production to tread water later this year Weekly data for June and July point to a slight recovery in US crude oil production from May’s depressed level of 10m bpd. We expect output to remain subdued for the rest of 2020. 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc rally getting a little ahead of itself Last week saw the zinc price return to its pre-pandemic level, making it the second in the S&P of Industrial Metals to do so after copper. But unlike copper, we expect the zinc market to remain... 6th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The coronavirus and agricultural demand The coronavirus has changed how people live their lives and spend their money. The consumption of almost all agricultural commodities has fallen so far this year and we expect that it will take until... 5th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s imports illustrate impact of supply on prices The latest China import data tally with our view that constrained supply will help to push the prices of most base metals higher. Conversely, the surge in iron ore shipments is consistent with our... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China manufacturing strength to boost metals demand July’s encouraging batch of PMIs for China suggest that the robust economic rebound continued into the start of Q3. And with policy support set to be stepped up, strong Chinese activity will continue... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Cotton prices to remain subdued Prolonged weakness in demand and high production will keep the cotton market in a surplus in 2020/21. As a result, we forecast that cotton prices will remain low over the next 18 months. 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Little to look forward to this year for US LNG exporters In recent months, cargoes of US LNG have been cancelled in record numbers as countries around the world struggle with the virus-related economic slump. After exports surged by nearly 60% y/y in the... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Lower real yields to support a higher gold price We have raised our forecast for the gold price, as we expect real yields to drift a little lower and remain low for some time. We now think that the price of gold will finish the year at $1,900 per... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally not entirely divorced from reality At face value, the rally in the copper price to above its pre-virus level suggests that the coronavirus pandemic has led to an overall improvement in the metal’s fundamental outlook. While a little... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update New LME data confirm aluminium stockpile overhang New data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) confirm our view that there has been an increase in off-exchange stocks this year, particularly for aluminium. Admittedly, there are limitations to... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The Siberian heatwave and commodities Unseasonably hot weather in Siberia in recent months has weighed on wheat production and damaged industrial infrastructure. Scientists think that future heatwaves in the region will become more common... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s opportunistic buying has run its course China’s commodity import volumes surged in June, while exports remained in the doldrums. We expect this trend to partially reverse in the coming months as higher commodity prices will curb bargain... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions about the EU’s hydrogen strategy The recent launch of the European Commission’s hydrogen strategy marks a step forward in the region’s decarbonisation push in which it hopes to use ‘green’ hydrogen in place of fossil fuels. We answer... 10th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strong demand set to keep lumber prices high As the US economy continues to recover from virus-related disruption, we expect the housing and retail sectors to rebound. This, along with a stronger Canadian dollar and restricted supply (owing to... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
