Commodities Update China’s commodity imports are on the way down China’s commodity imports fell back in April compared with a month earlier. This chimes with our view that imports of industrial commodities into China will come off the boil as economic growth there... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread likely to remain narrow We think that the absence of pipeline capacity constraints, a strong recovery in US oil demand, and increased output from OPEC+ members will all help to ensure that the Brent-WTI price spread remains... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Strong physical demand won’t stop gold prices falling Recent data have highlighted the strength of the rebound in physical demand for gold, especially in India and China. But we don’t think this poses much of a risk to our forecast for the gold price to... 30th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities We think that commodities & US equities will diverge While commodities and US equities often move in the same direction, this is not always the case. We expect poor returns from commodities over the next few years, but reasonable returns from US... 29th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Lumber prices to be cut down to size Even though we expect lumber demand to hold up well for some time, we still think that a rebound in supply will lead to a sharp fall in the price of US lumber over the next eighteen months. 20th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China trade: how are our predictions stacking up? The latest China trade data show that ore imports are rebounding, though scrap imports remain subdued. Meanwhile, imports of refined copper have seen a renewed surge. Nevertheless, we continue to... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Corn price rally to run out of steam The ongoing revival in global demand growth together with constrained global supply means that the price of corn is likely to hold onto most of its recent gains for some time. That said, we think that... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade: cutting through the noise China’s imports of key industrial commodities point to ongoing strength in domestic demand. But the bigger picture is that import volumes remain well below last year’s peaks, and we expect growth in... 13th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Weaker European demand won’t derail our oil forecast While we have revised down our oil price forecast for Q2 and Q3 this year in response to the OPEC+ decision to ease production cuts, we still think a rebound in global demand will help push oil prices... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Higher OPEC+ production to limit oil price gains The recent decision by OPEC+ to increase its oil production quotas and the prospect of higher Iranian output point to a smaller global oil market deficit this year than we had previously envisaged... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to lower industrial metals prices Despite some conflicting messages from the official and unofficial PMI data out of China, both surveys continue to point to lower industrial metals prices. A pick-up in manufacturing activity and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Real yields and gold The recent drop in the price of gold below $1,700/oz. has illustrated its greater sensitivity to US long- than short-dated real yields. Although the price has nudged back up above this level at the... 31st March 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions on the EU’s carbon border tax Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’)... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Surge in US oil production still seems very unlikely Despite the ongoing rise in the number of rigs actively drilling for oil, we continue to expect a lacklustre recovery in US oil production over the next couple of years. 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Tsingshan news to cap nickel price News on a potential breakthrough in the supply of nickel matte from Tsingshan has dampened nickel prices. Rather than a step-change in nickel market supply, we reckon that this development will simply... 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Little chance of a supercycle in agriculturals Agricultural prices are currently trading near multi-year highs, but we doubt that a supercycle is underway or will occur anytime soon. Instead, we think that agricultural prices will fall over both... 16th March 2021 · 3 mins read
