Commodities Update Rise in the price of cocoa more bitter than sweet for producers Bad weather in West Africa may continue to drive the price of cocoa higher until the rainy season in the spring. But we think over the next few years, a combination of better farming techniques and... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in China's commodity imports likely to be temporary China’s imports of most major commodities rose in September. But we expect growth in demand for commodities to slow over the next year as China rebalances its economy. 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why isn't the gold price higher? There are several possible explanations for the failure of the gold price to take off despite the prospect that the US government may soon default on its debt. The most plausible is simply that the... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China has the cotton market sewn up for now We expect movements in the price of cotton to be driven by policy decisions in China over the next year. A probable reduction in government support for Chinese cotton farmers in 2014 is likely to put... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to fall back again We expect the Brent-WTI spread to gradually decrease from about $6 per barrel today to zero over the next year, as logistical constraints in Cushing and Louisiana ease. 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrial metals prices to remain weak The prices of industrial metals continued falling during the last month, despite more positive economic news from many advanced economies. We think the prices of most industrial metals are likely to... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Demand to play a bigger role in crop price changes After the further sharp falls in corn and soybean prices over the last month we think that most of the new US crop is now priced into the market. However, in contrast to the consensus, we still expect... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvement in China not enough to boost metal prices Industrial metals prices have remained weak today, despite the improvement in the flash PMI for China, which rose to a six month high. We continue to doubt that the rebound in China economy will last... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Detente between the US and Iran to undermine oil prices The markets and media have understandably been focused on developments in Syria for the last few months. However, signs of a possible thaw in the relationship between Washington and Tehran could have... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The environment looks to be winning the war on coal We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take fresh steps to reduce pollution. 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Fed decision mean for commodities? After the initial bounce, the Fed’s decision to maintain its current pace of asset purchases for a while longer is unlikely to have any major implications for commodity prices. Precious metals have... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can seasonal demand alone rescue the price of gold? This is the time of the year when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. There does indeed appear to be a seasonal pattern in the gold price but, as... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update If the oil market is well supplied, what's keeping prices high? In contrast to OPEC, we think that supply outages from Libya and other producers, as well as wider geopolitical tensions, are playing a key role in keeping oil prices high. 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising China demand won't stop oil prices from falling Despite increasing oil imports by China and other emerging economies, we expect the price of crude to fall as the temporary factors underpinning current high prices are resolved. What’s more, larger... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Thai rice price has not quite found its floor yet Despite the dramatic decline in the price of Thai rice over the last month, we still think there is room for further falls. Sales from Thailand’s enormous official stockpiles into an already well... 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Shanghai copper premiums are likely to plummet Copper premiums in Shanghai hit a record high earlier this month but we expect them to fall from around $175 per tonne at present to under $100 over the next six months or so. 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
