Commodities Update What might China's "war on pollution" mean for metals prices? At face value, the “war” on pollution and less investment-driven growth reiterated at China’s ongoing National People’s Congress (NPC) does not bode well for commodity demand (or prices). Indeed, we... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine crisis a bigger threat to grain markets than energy Whilst we do not expect significant disruption to the supply of any commodities, there is much greater potential for exports of grain from the Ukraine to be interrupted than energy supplies from... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Ukraine crisis mean for energy prices? A further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine could return the price of a barrel of Brent to the highs of around $125 seen in the early days of the “Arab Spring”. However, we would expect any such... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Political upheaval in Thailand to weigh on rice prices The potential end of the controversial support scheme for rice farmers in Thailand this week should add to the downward pressure on rice prices over the next few years. In particular, how the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish manufacturing data to keep prices subdued Weaker manufacturing PMIs published today underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial metals from the continued slowdown in China and the fragility of the recovery in the euro-zone. Even... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How are Chinese financing deals affecting the copper market? One source of relief for copper producers has been the recent strength of China’s copper imports. This has been somewhat surprising given that other indicators point to weakening Chinese economic... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Quality over quantity for Chinese farmers, but supply still ample The announcement that China’s government will place more emphasis on food safety and quality, rather than just quantity, might suggest that the country will have to import significantly more grain... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad US weather driving commodity prices in unexpected ways Adverse weather is affecting US commodity prices in some obvious and some more surprising ways. As would be expected, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities have surged. But less... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's imports not as strong as headlines suggest Although China’s imports of many commodities reached new “record highs” in levels terms in January, this headline can be written most months. Indeed, the data were probably flattered by demand brought... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong demand to limit grain price falls Strong demand for grains is likely to support prices over the first half of the year. However, large harvests in South America and the US should put downward pressure on prices as the year progresses. 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling aluminium premiums should support prices We believe that the recent surge in US aluminium price premiums will be temporary as it reflects a regional supply bottleneck rather than a fundamentally tight global market. Supply will inevitably... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazilian drought heats up coffee and sugar markets High global stocks of sugar and coffee should be more than ample to cover any damage to crop production from the heat wave in Brazil. However, the amount of rain over the next few months will be the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities look to stronger GDP growth for comfort Commodity prices initially appeared to have shrugged off the recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets, perhaps focussing on the fact that Fed tapering depends on a continued pick-up in economic... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cold weather heats up the US natural gas market The extreme cold in the US this winter has caused a dramatic increase in the price of natural gas. This jump is likely to be short-lived but we expect a more sustained price rise from 2015. 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to panic about zinc supply The scheduled closure of a number of the world’s largest zinc mines after a period of strong growth in consumption suggests that there could be upward pressure on zinc prices in 2014-15. This... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad news from China offsets better news from Europe Disappointing manufacturing data from China underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial commodities in the coming months, although the news from the euro-zone is continuing to improve. 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
