Commodities Update Will Chinese demand rescue commodity prices? There have been many conflicting signals recently on the prospects for China’s demand for commodities. Indeed, the February trade data, released earlier today, could be spun either positively or... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Chavez's passing mean for oil prices? The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, is unlikely to have a significant impact on global oil markets in the short term, although this impact could yet be in either direction. Over the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cobalt: the Capital Economics view Cobalt is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. The price of cobalt is barely a quarter of the highs seen in March 2008, which might suggest that there is plenty of upside if... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call time on the bull market in gold Despite the recent weakness, we continue to expect the price of gold to reach new record highs of $2,000 per ounce later this year as global monetary policy remains supportive, the crisis in Europe... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide reality check on strength of global recovery The decline in the flash manufacturing PMI for China in February, reported today, is the latest sign that the pick-up in global manufacturing may be faltering. The equivalent US and euro-zone data... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper supply (finally) surges Global copper mine supply grew at its fastest rate in eight years in the closing months of 2012 and mine output is likely to grow just as quickly this year. This should enable smelters to raise their... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed about to take the punch bowl away? Despite the uncertainty created by the latest FOMC minutes, we do not believe that the Fed will be in any hurry to halt its additional asset purchases completely. Nonetheless, the reaction in the... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can Brent spreads be justified by fundamentals? The spreads between the prices of Brent and other crude benchmarks such as WTI and Dubai have recently widened to levels which are hard to justify on the basis of underlying supply and demand. This... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call the bottom of the sugar market Even though the global price has already slumped by around a third over the last two years, sugar has been the worst performing of the major agricultural commodities so far in 2013, falling by another... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the recovery in cotton prices be sustained? The price of cotton, which fell by around 20% in 2012, has turned around to become the best performing of the major agricultural commodities so far this year, rising by about 10%. This recovery has... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is it time to give up on commodities? It has taken two years of dismal returns and a regulatory backlash, but the consensus has finally swung round to our long-held scepticism about the “super-cycle” and the diversification benefits of... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports flattered by timing of New Year The value of China’s commodity imports rose y/y in January at their fastest rate since October but this may well have been due to the distortions caused by the timing of the lunar New Year as much as... 8th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tensions with Iran to keep oil prices high for longer The high cost of oil reflects hopes of a strong recovery in demand at least as much as tensions in the Middle East. However, the price of a barrel of Brent probably still includes a premium of $10-15... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sustained recovery in BDI still some way off One commodity-related indicator that has failed to show any signs of a revival is the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs, which remains more than 90% below its pre-crisis peak. Indeed, the BDI... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lumber: the Capital Economics view Lumber, or sawn timber as it is also known, is being added to our coverage of agriculturals from today. Despite a sharp rise in lumber prices last year and our expectations of only a lacklustre... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strengthening global sentiment to support prices in Q1 Improving business conditions and confidence in financial markets should support higher prices for industrial commodities through the first quarter at least, but doubts remain about their... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
