Commodities Update China's soybean demand is likely to slump later this year We think that the drivers of the recent surge in grain and soybean prices are likely to prove temporary. Lower demand from China coupled with large harvests from Brazil should put downward pressure on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update One more leg down in copper prices still to come The consensus is finally coming round to our long-held bearish view on the price of copper, but we still think there will be one last (big) move lower. The most likely trigger is disappointment at the... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports prove resilient, for now China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly in the first quarter of this year despite slowing industrial activity. However, we think it is too soon to conclude that growth in commodity demand is... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How vulnerable are gold prices to rising real yields? All else being equal, the return of US inflation-adjusted interest rates to more normal levels might be expected to lead to a sharp fall in the gold price. However, we expect the pace of normalisation... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Unplanned supply outages keeping oil prices high Large unplanned supply outages have helped keep oil prices high over the last three years, despite a surge in production from the US. We expect the factors holding back supply to ease over the next... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices will still struggle this year Aluminium prices have been falling since 2011, despite solid growth in demand. The underlying problem is the scale of excess capacity and output in China which will remain a drag this year at least... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farmers to prioritise soybeans over corn Large potential plantings of soybeans, corn and wheat by US farmers underpin our view that US grain and soybeans prices are likely to fall over the course of this year. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slower growth in China's demand for oil to weigh on prices We expect China’s oil demand to continue to grow at a sluggish pace over the next few years. However, rather than this primarily being due to slower economic growth, we would put more emphasis on... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Solid fundamentals will support palladium prices Palladium prices have risen 11% since the beginning of this year. A number of recent developments, including the risk of disruption to Russia’s exports of palladium, have provided a boost. But we... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No sign of China headwinds easing The latest manufacturing PMIs confirm that China’s economy is continuing to slow and that the recovery in the euro-zone lacks strong momentum. This should continue to weigh on the prices of industrial... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surge in supply will weigh on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have fallen by nearly 20% since the beginning of this year, despite still strong Chinese imports. Prices may recover somewhat as we move into the second quarter, a time of seasonal... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More upside for Iraqi oil production The recent surge in Iraqi oil production is a good sign that Baghdad’s ambitious plans to dramatically increase output may be on the right path after stalling for the last year. However, there are... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Common factors driving agricultural prices higher We think that the sharp rise in agricultural prices since the beginning of the year is likely to be a spike rather than the start of an upward trend. Indeed, the surge in prices is mainly due to a... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update It's time to differentiate more between metals As copper and iron ore prices went into apparent freefall last week, one might have expected a general sell-off in metals markets. However, the response of other metals prices was more nuanced, with... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Would the release of US strategic oil reserves be a game changer? The sale of crude oil from the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as unusual as some of the media headlines suggest, and the small test release, announced yesterday, is unlikely to have a... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Crop prices supported by weather and conflict risks Grain and soybean prices are likely to be determined by weather factors and geopolitical risks over the next few months, but we believe that the risks lie to the downside, especially for soybeans. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
