Commodities Update What’s behind the rally in gold? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold reflects a range of positives. Some of these should be sustained, notably the growing recognition that US monetary conditions will remain loose even... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone data provide some cheer (for now) In the event, the FOMC minutes simply reinforced expectations that the US central bank will start to taper its asset purchases as soon as next month. Instead, industrial metals prices have been buoyed... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update LME steel prices set to rally We expect the LME steel price to rise from around $165 per tonne to $270 by the end of 2015 due to the narrowing of differences between LME and other steel prices and the closure of Chinese capacity. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Latest jump in oil prices looks unsustainable Only a small part of the recent run-up in oil prices is due to the turmoil in Egypt. But whatever the reason for the latest jump in the cost of crude, the fragility of the global economic recovery and... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are iron ore prices set to tumble? We expect iron ore prices to drop from around $144 per tonne currently to $110 by the end of this year and to fall further thereafter, due to escalating supply and disappointing Chinese demand. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China still the wildcard Three macro developments should continue to set the tone for industrial commodity prices in the coming months. The end of the euro-zone recession is only a small positive, while the prospect that the... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain and soybean prices still have further to fall We think that the prices of US grains and soybeans are still higher than can be sustained by fundamentals, despite the sharp falls last month. 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to grind lower over the next year Despite the introduction of a new support scheme for coffee farmers in Brazil, we expect the price of arabica coffee to fall from around 120 US cents per lb today to 100 by the end of 2014. This is... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports surge higher After a year of being pitifully weak, China’s commodity imports rose rapidly in July, in many cases to record highs. This has sparked a rally in commodity prices but we doubt this will be sustained. 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plummeting cobalt prices still have further to fall We think that the proposed ban on exporting cobalt concentrates by the largest producing country, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), will be deferred again at the end of this year. As a result... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China weakening, euro-zone stabilising Flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone, released this morning, have continued to diverge. China’s manufacturing index fell unexpectedly to its lowest level since last August, but the euro-zone... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is silver set to outshine gold? The analyst consensus is that the price of silver is likely to outperform that of gold as both continue to recover in the next year or so. We are nudging our gold price forecasts higher today in the... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recent fall in gas prices due to a lot of hot air The recent swings in the price of natural gas in the US have mainly been caused by the unusually cold spring. The bigger picture is that higher demand from utilities and manufacturers and lower... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices likely to fall back by year end We expect the price of US soybeans to decline gradually over the summer as exports from South America pick up. They may then fall more rapidly by the end of the year as a large supply of crops from... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity imports were stronger than overall trade in June, but were still weak in the first half of 2013 overall. What’s more, China is shifting to a lower and less commodity-intensive growth... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Favourable weather to dampen US grain prices further The falls in US grain prices over the last month were largely due to better weather which allowed farmers to finish planting. The extremely wet spring had supported prices due to fears that late... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
