China Economics Update How many young workers are there? There may be 31 million fewer Chinese aged under 15 than previously thought. If so, the number of young workers will soon be falling rapidly, putting sustained upward pressure on wages. 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q2 2010 China’s businesses and banks are still confident and do not think the economy is overheating, but consumers are unhappy about prices and wages and reluctant to spend. Mortgage demand is down and few... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Do wage increases reduce the need for currency appreciation? Rapid wage increases may play a big role in rebalancing China’s economy in the years ahead. In the short term though, they are no substitute for nominal currency appreciation. 15th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Diminishing inflation threat should keep rates on hold Consumer price inflation has just edged above 3% but with price pressures still low and output growth already slowing, there is no pressing need to tighten policy. Indeed, we no longer expect interest... 11th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Inflation probably rose to 3% in May, but the bigger picture is that the threat of overheating already appears to be dissipating. We now expect inflation for the year as a whole to come in below the... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How much should we care about Chinese equities? We expect a big rebound in Chinese equity prices in the second half of 2010 as fears about policy tightening wane and the economy heads to a soft landing. However, rising prices will not give much of... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gliding to a soft landing A few weeks ago, the common view was that China was overheating and so heading for a crash. (We strongly disagreed.) The mood now seems to be shifting, partly due to worries about the global outlook... 28th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China finally rebalancing? How much progress has there been in efforts to rebalance China’s economy? US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is positive, saying that “it looks as if there has been a durable shift towards domestic... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What did we learn at the US-China Dialogue? Markets have reined in even further their expectations of renminbi appreciation and are now pricing in a meagre 0.6% gain against the dollar over the next 12 months. That is surely too little. Indeed... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will Europe’s troubles affect China’s currency policy? Worries about Europe have prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the renminbi’s future pace of gains, but we still expect appreciation against the dollar to resume at some point between next... 19th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No sign inflation is picking up Inflation pressures remain low in China. There are signs in the April data that the boost that stimulus policies have provided to consumer spending is easing. But for now, the recovery still looks... 11th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is the People's Bank signalling a policy shift? Contrary to some suggestions doing the rounds in the media and the markets, China’s central bank has not shifted its position on exchange rate policy in its latest quarterly report. 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Tomorrow’s inflation data are likely to show a rebound in the headline rate in April. But a close look at recent trends suggests that inflationary pressures remain weak. With the economy set to slow... 10th May 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Interest rates likely to remain on hold until Q4 Events in China and Europe this month have reduced the chances that China will raise interest rates in May, as we had expected. A first hike may now wait until the fourth quarter. 30th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s surging copper imports? The surge in China’s copper imports last month has been taken by some as evidence that final demand is booming. But with inventories at unprecedented levels, import demand looks set to tail off again. 29th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s property crackdown? China’s attempt to crack down on speculative activity in its property markets does not signal that a property bubble is either inflating or about to burst. The new measures should help to tame price... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
