China Economics Update What happened to China’s fiscal stimulus? A resurgence in revenue will cap China’s fiscal deficit at just 3% of GDP in 2009. Looking ahead, the Budget for 2010 could signal how committed the government is to economic rebalancing. 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update What is behind China’s new language on the renminbi? 13th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s commodity imports slow Despite further evidence of economic strength, China’s monthly data for October suggested that commodity stockpiling is waning. Lending growth declined more than expected, but credit policy is set to... 11th November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank signals sharp growth slowdown in China The latest PMI data support our view that growth in China remains strong. However, the People’s Bank appears to disagree, with potentially major implications for the policy outlook. 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s growth peaks Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that seasonally-adjusted, q/q growth in China’s economy has peaked, but growth is expected to remain strong for some time. 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asset bubbles to be China’s biggest concern in year ahead China’s loan-fuelled stimulus has returned the economy to rapid growth. The key challenge now is sustaining the rebound without inflating asset price bubbles. 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More stimulus from China’s banks and much stronger trade There was no let-up last month in the lending growth that is fuelling China’s stimulus. For now, the Chinese recovery is benefitting the rest of the world through stronger imports. But as commodity... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s hot money worries set to reappear China’s foreign exchange purchases, and hot inflows into its economy, have steadied. But they are likely to rise in the months ahead, adding to the threat of asset price bubbles next year. 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Business conditions continue to improve in China Business conditions in China improved across the board in Q3, but small and privately-owned firms are far less exuberant than their large and state-owned counterparts. 13th October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PMIs add to impression of Asian strength Asia’s PMI releases today add to the weight of evidence that Asia’s recovery has plenty of positive momentum. 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does China need to stay healthy at 60? As China’s government celebrates 60 years of the People’s Republic, the experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers underlines the case for China to shift its economic model to sustain rapid growth. 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still hurtling along Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy expanded at an annualised pace of 15% over the summer. With many companies only just starting to spend the proceeds of loans, rapid growth... 28th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China still accelerating China’s monthly data for August support our view that the economy is still accelerating. The current structure of growth may be unsustainable in the long-run, but the government appears unwilling to... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PMIs point to continued momentum in emerging Asia 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China’s momentum slipping? Investors may have overestimated the speed of China’s recovery in the first half of 2009. But by focusing too narrowly on headline investment and loans data – such as those released for July today –... 11th August 2009 · 1 min read
