China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Widespread flooding may have pushed food prices higher last month, but sharp falls in inflation are not too far away. 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Return of the peg In a series of statements at the end of July, the People’s Bank (PBC) laid out a comprehensive position on the role of the renminbi in China’s broader policy framework. The five articles from Vice... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How significant is the non-performing loan threat? Rising non-performing loan levels are very unlikely to trigger a banking crisis in China, but measures taken to clean up bad debt may hold back economic growth and the pace of rebalancing. 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downside risks to growth intensify China’s Q2 GDP growth was in line with our expectation, but unexpected weakness in the June activity data suggests the government may be forced to loosen policy sooner than originally thought. 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi appreciation stalls The renminbi has virtually stopped moving against the dollar over the last fortnight and is actually weaker in trade-weighted terms than it was when currency reforms were restarted just under a month... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown in reserve accumulation unlikely to last China’s foreign exchange purchases slumped in Q2, but will probably pick up again as the trade surplus rises in the second half of the year. 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Inflation might have risen again last month but the peak is probably not far away. 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The significance of China’s latest investment plans Plans for new investment in Western China probably do not constitute a new stimulus, but should temper concerns that tighter rules on local government project financing will lead to a slump in... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slowdown set to continue, market concerns to linger Current concerns about China’s slowdown are more justified than the previous fears of overheating. The government will probably loosen policy towards the end of the year, helping to maintain growth at... 6th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Watch the PMIs (or the CAP), not the Conference Board The negative reaction to what was in other respects an unimportant downward revision to the Conference Board’s leading indicator for April probably says more about the fragility of market confidence... 1st July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First thoughts a week into currency reform In the first week after the People’s Bank (PBC) decided to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform, the renminbi strengthened a total of 0.5% against the dollar. A little under half of those gains... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hot inflows not likely to be a major threat With expectations for the pace of future renminbi appreciation low, speculative capital flows into China are unlikely to take off. Even if they do, the People’s Bank is capable of responding... 23rd June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Still in need of rebalancing The financial crisis has left many reputations looking rather tattered. China’s policymakers are among a small group who have emerged with their standing enhanced. Acting boldly and swiftly, they not... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Lessons from 2005 for the renminbi The renminbi came close to breaching the People’s Bank 0.5% trading band against the dollar today, however such strong gains are unlikely to be a sign of what is to come. Indeed, when currency reform... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi reform restarts Proof will come in the next day or two, but the decision of the People’s Bank to “proceed further” with exchange rate reform almost certainly means the renminbi’s hard dollar peg is at an end. 20th June 2010 · 1 min read
