China Economics Update Don’t trust China’s numbers, but don’t doubt the rebound Few will be surprised by the suggestion on the front page of today’s FT that China’s growth figures don’t add up. We created our China Activity Proxy (CAP) in an attempt to sidestep scepticism about... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China on course for strong growth and asset bubbles in H2 China’s economic recovery is real but the turnaround has probably not been as sharp as the official data would have us believe. Looking ahead, the rapid growth of lending in the first half of the year... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hot capital returns to China, raising inflation risks further The revival of confidence in China’s prospects appears to be drawing large amounts of speculative capital back into the economy, swelling the money supply and further raising inflation risks. Much of... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s growth still falling short Our in-house measure of growth in the Chinese economy points to a stronger recovery in May but we still doubt that the economy will meets the government’s target for an 8% expansion this year. 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the surge in Chinese investment? China’s reported fixed investment soared in May. But if the economy is doing so well, why did imports post an even steeper decline? 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More signs that Asia’s recovery is taking its time The slight fall in China’s official PMI in May is actually fairly encouraging since the index usually falls by much more at this time of year. But Asia’s recovery is only gaining ground slowly, as... 1st June 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is investment spurring recovery in China? Chinese investment soared last month according to the official figures. Yet something doesn’t add up. Steel inventories stayed high, steel prices remained flat and sales of excavators have plummeted... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower loan growth good for China, bad for equities April’s sharp fall in the growth of lending in China could expose the degree to which credit growth has supported equities and broader sentiment. Slower loan growth tempers concerns about asset... 11th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of China’s concerns over QE? China is concerned that widespread adoption of quantitative easing in major economies poses a threat to exchange rate stability. But we should be wary of jumping to conclusions on what this means for... 8th May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asian recovery still needs deeper roots There was much to cheer in China’s latest PMI and April’s export data from Korea. But they are consistent with stabilisation rather than either economy springing rapidly back to life. 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China stabilises, but recovery set to disappoint Growth may have bottomed out in the first quarter but with private sector and overseas demand still weak, China will not emerge from this downturn as rapidly as it went in. 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has China’s recovery begun? China’s official PMI rose above 50 in March. This is good news, but China’s economy is set for a tepid recovery at best. 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Have Chinese interest rates bottomed out? A surge in lending might increase the chances that Chinese interest rates remain on hold this year, but if the economy remains weak, as we expect, the People’s Bank will still be forced to cut again. 12th March 2009 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No new stimulus from China The renewed optimism about China’s prospects that had supported global equities earlier in the week could start to unravel on the back of today’s disappointing budget. 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
