Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Growth slowdown will dampen price pressures Australia’s economy continued to expand at a robust pace last quarter and there are mounting signs that the tight labour market is boosting wage growth. That suggests that the RBA isn’t done... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to declare victory on inflation The financial markets have scaled back their expectations for the peak in the cash rate following soft data on consumer spending and inflation. But while inflation will peak at slightly lower levels... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand will enter prolonged recession We already predicted that New Zealand would enter recession a month ago and the RBNZ’s determination to push the economy off a cliff to get inflation under control means the downturn will be even... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth still not a major driver of price pressures Even though wage growth surpassed 3% for the first time since 2012 last quarter, and unemployment is back at a record low, the tight labour market has not been a major driver of the recent surge in... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilience in consumption won’t last The RBA Deputy Governor this week noted that the Bank is getting closer to the point where it can stop tightening, which creates some downside risks to our above-consensus interest rate forecasts... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will continue to tighten well into 2023 The RBA didn’t respond to the upside surprise in Q3 inflation with a renewed 50bp hike this week as some had anticipated. But by revising up its inflation forecasts and sounding increasingly concerned... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will stick to 25bp hike One reason why investors were caught off guard by the further acceleration in trimmed mean CPI last quarter was that the ABS' Monthly CPI Indicator hasn't been as reliable as we'd like it to be. That... 28th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA prepares investors for a lengthy tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled this week that its decision to slow the pace of tightening at its latest meeting doesn't mean that the tightening cycle will be over soon. Meanwhile, Treasurer... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still likely to lift rates to 3.6% by mid-2023 The RBA downplayed the importance of its revised estimate of the neutral interest rate published this week. For what it’s worth though, the Bank’s analysis implies that the cash rate remains below... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still likely to lift rates to 3.6% by mid-2023 The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates by less than most had anticipated this week, but with the economy still running red hot, we doubt that it will take its foot of the brake altogether before... 7th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Early signs that households are coming under pressure With commodity prices surging in the wake of the Ukraine war, the final budget outcome for 2021/22 improved the most relative to the Budget forecast in history. And with coal prices still sky high... 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning point for inflation has been reached While the exchange rate has only played a minor role in the surge in “core” goods inflation to a record-high, the further depreciation of the Australian dollar over the past month will tilt the... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver another 50bp rate hike RBA Governor Lowe reiterated today that the Bank will slow the pace of tightening at some point. But his hawkish comments on the health of consumer spending and the labour market suggest that this... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will slow pace of tightening to 25bp next month Consumption has recovered faster than we had expected. However, income growth has disappointed and the savings rate is falling more sharply than we had thought. That leaves less scope for households... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn starting to weigh on activity While the plunge in homebuilding last quarter reflected supply shortages more than weak demand, slumping home sales and house prices suggest that the downturn in dwellings investment has much further... 2nd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Resilient activity points to aggressive RBA tightening While business surveys in other advanced economies point to shrinking activity, the are holding up much better in Australia. The resilience of Australia's consumer reflects the strongest rise in... 26th August 2022 · 6 mins read
