Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pace of house price declines may be letting up The pace of house price declines has eased in recent months and forward indicators suggest there may be a further slowdown ahead. However, we still expect houses prices to fall by 15% from their peak... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade frictions not a major risk to economy China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labor’s Budget alternative not so stimulatory either This week both the government and the opposition laid out their fiscal plans if they were to win the next election, with both sides promising significant income tax cuts. But given the negative... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Balanced budget & tumbling yields The rapid improvement in the budget deficit provides the Coalition government with some scope to announce additional tax cuts or higher spending while maintaining its forecast of budget surpluses over... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Losing confidence The continued decline in business confidence in February suggests that the falls in business investment will persist into 2019. And the deterioration in consumer confidence may motivate households to... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Investment will be a drag on growth before long Data on investment spending released this week sent conflicting messages. We put more weight on the dismal construction work done figures and have penciled in falling business investment in the fourth... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian investment to fall, RBNZ tweaks stance Weak business sentiment in Australia is likely to be another drag on private investment in 2019. And given the role the housing downturn is playing in sentiment, we expect things to get worse before... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA puts rate cuts back on the table The RBA changed tact this week and shifted away from its long-held tightening bias to a neutral stance on interest rates. This move was accompanied by a new set of downgraded economic forecasts, which... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s optimism faces reality check The RBA will probably continue to signal that the next move in rates is up at Tuesday’s meeting. But with mounting signs that the housing downturn is spreading to other parts of the economy and price... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs and credit growth set to slow further The downturn in the housing market means that the recent stability of the unemployment rate probably won’t last. We expect jobs growth to slow to 1% next year and the unemployment rate to creep up to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why we now expect the RBA to cut rates Australia’s housing downturn is deepening. Prices will probably fall by more than we had previously anticipated and the drag from falling dwellings investment will be larger. The experience from... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
