Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Not confident either economy will improve Consumer and business confidence in Australia have both recently fallen to their weakest levels in years. And we now think GDP growth in New Zealand will slow to 1.5% in 2020. That’s why we think both... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do The RBA’s interest rate cuts are running into diminishing returns as banks are protecting their net interest margins and loan demand remains muted. Meanwhile, the sluggish increase in retail sales in... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had forecast and there is a good chance that growth picks up a bit in the second half of 2019. On that basis, we have revised up our 2019 GDP growth forecast from... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The sky isn’t falling There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t worry, there’s still more “in the tin” The 50 basis point cut by the RBNZ took markets by surprise this week and we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. If the economic outlook deteriorates by considerably more... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Bond yields crashing to new lows Economic data this week confirmed that the Australian economy continues to underperform. Meanwhile, bond yields have been in freefall. In part, that reflects Governor Lowe’s comments last week that... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer unlikely to shift the goal posts The Treasurer is currently reviewing the RBA’s inflation target before he signs the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. We doubt there will be any major changes and Governor Lowe gave a... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for gas sector challenging The US may overtake Australia and Qatar to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG by 2024 as production costs in the US are lower than in Australia. For now, that’s not too big a concern as the... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption growth ‘deemed’ to be weak The consensus is slowly edging closer to our forecast that GDP growth in 2019 will be just 1.5%. And high levels of household debt and a lack of fiscal stimulus mean that growth will probably remain... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes for additional fiscal stimulus dashed The economy is now getting support from all sides, with the RBA cutting interest rates, Parliament passing the tax cuts promised in the Budget and APRA loosening constraints on mortgage lending this... 5th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We now expect one extra cut by the RBA & RBNZ Following dovish comments from the RBNZ this week we now expect the Bank to cut rates to 1.0% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, our forecast that the RBA will cut rates to 0.5% by early next year... 28th June 2019 · 6 mins read
