Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Meanwhile, Asian... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war disruption, peace hopes grow in Mindanao US trade data released earlier this week for October reveal the extent to which the US-China trade war is disrupting regional supply chains. Meanwhile, hopes are rising that martial law in Mindanao... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly VAT cut in Sri Lanka, Japan-Korea trade spat The decision by Sri Lanka’s new president to cut the rate of VAT from 15% to 8% will provide a significant boost to the economy, but will put increased strain on the country’s fragile public finances... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recent positive data, Vietnam raises the retirement age Economic data published this week by Singapore and Korea, which are both good bellwethers for the rest of the region, add to evidence that the worst is now over for regional growth. Meanwhile, the... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte health worries, Sri Lanka election If President Duterte is forced to leave office through ill health, Vice President Leni Robredo, who leads the main opposition party in the Philippines, would take over as president. We don’t know much... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP: no more cuts in 2019, Malaysia SRR cut Governor Diokno was pretty emphatic earlier this week when he said that the central bank (BSP) had “absolutely” “done more than enough” this year. In response we are taking out the interest rate cut... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, Taiwan’s tourism woes Having previously expected equity and currency markets to fall sharply across Emerging Asia before the end of the year, we have revised our forecasts and now expect financial markets to remain broadly... 1st November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan outperforming, RRR cuts in the Philippines In contrast to the rest of the region, where growth has recently been touching post-financial crisis lows, Taiwan’s economy has rebounded strongly over the past year. GDP figures due to be published... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Stimulus in Korea, Jokowi’s second term, IMF forecasts GDP figures due to be released next week are likely to show Korea’s economy remained very subdued in Q3 – we have pencilled in growth of just 0.4% q/q. But with fiscal and monetary policy being... 18th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Baht set to remain strong, fiscal tightening in Malaysia The authorities in Thailand this week unveiled a couple of further measures designed to put downward pressure on the currency. But unless more is done to reduce the country’s large current account... 11th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth stable in Q3, Malaysia’s 2020 budget Countries from across the region are due to publish third quarter GDP figures over the coming weeks. The latest monthly data suggest that after slowing sharply in the first half of the year, economic... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Singapore data, loosening in the Philippines The poor recent performance of manufacturing in Singapore increases the chance that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will loosen policy aggressively at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, in... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia corruption concerns, new Pakistan forecasts Indonesia’s parliament has approved changes to how the country’s anti-corruption body (KPK) is governed, a move which could weaken its powers to investigate new corruption allegations. Meanwhile... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong baht, more RCEP delays Despite the worries of policymakers, there is little evidence that the strong baht is to blame for the weakness of exports. While Thai exports have struggled this year, they have performed broadly in... 13th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation in Korea, rate cut likely in the Philippines Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping into negative territory in August, we don’t think there is much risk of a prolonged period of deflation. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in inflation last month in... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea budget boost, inflation remains low in August The announcement yesterday of plans for a large fiscal boost in Korea’s draft 2020 budget has led us to revise up our Korea growth forecast for next year to 2.5%, from 2.0% previously. That said, we... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
