Asia Economics Weekly Risks in the Philippines, Indonesia Activity Tracker The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to upgrade its long-term credit rating for the Philippines to BBB+ risks underplaying the country’s worsening external position as well as its... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Higher oil prices, Korean investment slump Despite the recent rise in oil prices, inflation across the region is likely to remain subdued throughout 2019. We don’t think higher oil prices will stop Asian central banks from raising interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Technology slump bottoms out, Philippines budget A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A look ahead to Indonesia’s election With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and the IMF, inflation falls in the Philippines Pakistan looks to be close to agreeing the terms of a bailout package with the IMF. As the price for a deal, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Q1 data, Thai election, rupiah under pressure The recent economic data from across Emerging Asia have continued to disappoint. Our Emerging Asia GDP Tracker suggest the regional is now growing at its weakest pace in three years. Meanwhile... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade downturn, Malaysia deflation, Thai election The past week has brought further bad news on the trade front, with more countries reporting a decline in exports. A turn in the electronics inventory cycle, the trade war and weaker global demand are... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP governor hints at cuts, rising risk of Thai unrest An early rate cut in the Philippines is looking increasingly likely after the country’s new central bank governor, Benjamin Diokno, told a news conference on Friday that “given the decelerating... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Acceleration in growth unlikely to last Economic growth in Emerging Asia accelerated slightly last quarter, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We expect growth to remain weak over the coming quarters. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export downturn worsens, Trump-Kim summit The weak Korean export figures for the first 20 days of February that were published earlier this week suggest that the region’s export downturn is intensifying. Looking ahead, the highlight of the... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak growth in Singapore to prompt policy loosening The weak Q4 GDP figures for Singapore that were released earlier today reaffirm our view that monetary and fiscal policy will be loosened this year. Meanwhile, the widening of Indonesia’s trade and... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai politics upended, central banks turn dovish The nomination of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi (sister of the current king) as a prime ministerial candidate in Thailand’s upcoming general election, has completely changed the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding rupiah, Pakistan-IMF talks breakdown The continued rebound in the rupiah means that further interest rate hikes by Bank Indonesia (BI) are unlikely in the near term, but we think it is too early to call an end to the central bank’s... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to remain weak, Philippines’ budget impasse The latest export data for Asia paint a glum picture, with December figures showing exports fell in y/y terms in China, Singapore, Indonesia, Korea, Taiwan and India. With global growth likely to slow... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
