Africa Economics Weekly Virus disruptions start to hit Africa, all eyes on SONA While Africa has – so far – not reported any cases of the new coronavirus, evidence is building that shutdowns in China are causing economic disruptions for the region. Kenya’s locust infestation will... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Downbeat forecasts, Central bankers, plagues of locusts We published our latest Africa Economic Outlook this week, laying out below-consensus views on South Africa and Angola, but more optimistic forecasts for Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia. We think that... 31st January 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN tweaks, Zambia struggles, Ramaphosa consolidates Nigerian policymakers kept their key rate on hold today, but tinkered with the cash reserve ratio in an effort to put a floor under falling interbank rates. Elsewhere, South Africa’s reform-minded... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Q4 recession likely, SARB to the rescue? UK in Africa This week’s South African economic figures suggest that activity in November was stronger than we’d expected, but we still think that a poor performance in December caused output to fall over Q4 as a... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa: Recession looms, but exams provide ray of hope Downbeat South African activity figures out this week strengthened our belief that the country’s economy slipped into another technical recession in Q4. On a more positive note, exam results suggested... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA trade figures, Kenya’s drought, Ugandan inflation The increase in South Africa’s trade surplus in November might look like good news at first glance, but it is merely a reflection of the weak economy. In Kenya, recently released data show that the... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian prices jump, CFA rumours overdone Nigerian inflation figures released this week supported our view that border closures are pushing up prices in the country. We expect that this will prompt policymakers to delay interest rate cuts... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa falters in Q4, SSA oil production tumbles Grim output data for October and widespread power cuts added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. Even if the country does dodge a recession, recent weakness suggests... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa falters, Nigeria FX bans fail, Kenya rail troubles As we’d expected, figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. Early signs are that conditions remained difficult in Q4, raising the risk of another technical... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian rates on hold, Kenya cuts, SAA losing altitude Monetary policymakers in Nigeria and Ghana kept their key rates on hold this week, while their Kenyan peers loosened policy. We expect that the next move in all three countries will be a cut... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian weakness, Dovish SARB, big Zambian rate hike Figures released this week added to the evidence that Nigeria’s economy continued to falter in the second half of this year. South African policymakers sounded dovish at their latest MPC meeting, but... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Another swing in SA output, Kwanza stable, Fiscal splurges The latest South African activity figures added to evidence that the economy contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, Angola’s recession is likely to be prolonged into 2020 given the currency’s falls this... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Weakness in SA, Kwanza finds its feet, Kenya rate cap cut This week’s South African activity data added to the evidence that the economy faltered in Q3. We’ll know more when retail and mining figures are published next week, but there is an underappreciated... 8th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s outlook fears, Kwanza collapse, Springboks! Moody’s is likely to adopt a ‘negative’ outlook on South Africa’s local currency debt rating later today, paving the way for a downgrade to ‘junk’ status. The review comes days after the government... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola shifts to float kwanza, SA opposition cracks Angolan policymakers abandoned their currency trading band this week, suggesting that they are getting serious about reforming the FX system. The official exchange rate has fallen sharply in recent... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flirts with autarky, South Africa slows The Nigerian government’s decision to ban all trade across the country’s land borders on Tuesday will only have a small macroeconomic impact, but it highlights the worrying shift towards more... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
