Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget, more weakness in SA, Uganda rate cut Nigeria’s president announced his draft budget this week, the first time in several years that the document has been published in Q3. This raises the possibility that lawmakers will be able to pass it... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN ups pressure on banks, ANC balks at reforms The Central Bank of Nigeria increased pressure on commercial banks to extend more loans this week, but we doubt that the new targets will have much effect. Elsewhere, South African leaders seem to be... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Dovish tone in Kenya, fiscal woes in Nigeria Kenyan policymakers held their key interest rate at 9.00% earlier this week, but dovish commentary strengthened our view that they will loosen policy next year. Nigeria’s central bank governor, by... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates on hold, but cuts coming in Ghana & Nigeria Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana sang from the same hymn sheet this week by maintaining their key rates on hold. While we think that the window for monetary easing has now closed in... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s oil pledge, South Africa to cut rates Nigeria’s pledge this week to fully comply with its OPEC quota by lowering production levels would, if implemented, reduce GDP growth significantly. But given the country’s poor track record, we’re... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP, weak PMIs, but optimism from Eskom GDP figures from the region’s two biggest economies painted a mixed picture. While growth in Nigeria slowed a touch, the rebound in South Africa was stronger than we had expected. Even so, we think... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debts: The end of the beginning? Mozambique’s government and its bondholders edged towards a restructuring deal this week. While an agreement would not solve the government’s debt problems, it would be a big step forward. Elsewhere... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. African inflation eases, Buhari (finally) names a cabinet South African inflation slipped to 4.0% y/y in July, suggesting to us that policymakers will cut their key rate to 6.25% in September. Risks to this view are, admittedly, growing. After delaying for... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly More ‘Buharinomics’, signs of Q2 rebound in Nigeria, SA Despite fears to the contrary, calls this week by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to tighten restrictions on access to foreign currency are likely to have little effect on inflation. But they... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Could weak ZAR, Q2 recovery keep SA rates on hold? The rand’s recent weakness against the US dollar is mostly due to domestic factors – like problems at Eskom – rather than general EM fears about the US-China trade war. Currency weakness has increased... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look under Eskom’s hood, factory sentiment up Eskom’s latest annual report highlights that the firm’s woes run deeper than poor management and, until it is allowed to raise electricity tariffs significantly, the state will need to continue... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom bailout, Kganyago sounds hawkish, CBN on hold This week’s Eskom rescue package didn’t go far enough to meaningfully address the firm’s problems, but was expensive enough to increase the risk of a sovereign debt downgrade in November. SARB... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa rebound, rate cuts, Zambia bond rally Policymakers in South Africa reduced their key rate by 25bp this week, and we think that they will cut again later this year. Central banks in Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana will probably join in on the... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kganyago reappointed, rate cut likely next week The re-appointment of South Africa’s respected central bank governor will help to allay fears concerning the independence of the Reserve Bank. We think that policymakers will cut their policy rate... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Sino-Africa trade, Ethiopia crisis, weak investment in SA African leaders visiting China for a trade expo this week are sure to praise their ties with Beijing, but several big Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in the region are being delayed or... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
