Africa Economics Weekly Easing cycle gains momentum, no news from SONA Inflation figures released in South Africa and Nigeria this week supported our view that policymakers in both countries will loosen monetary policy later this year. Rates elsewhere are already falling... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Confusion in South Africa, debt deal in Mozambique A political dispute over the mandate of South Africa’s Reserve Bank caused the rand to weaken this week. We doubt that the bank’s charter will be changed, but the row highlights intra-ANC divisions... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP slump & rate cuts, inflation drop vindicates CBK Dovish comments from the South African Reserve Bank this week support our view that an interest rate cut is likely to come as soon as July. Elsewhere, the drop in Kenyan inflation in May backed up the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South African election, budgets in Nigeria & Kenya We doubt that next week’s South African election will do much to boost President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform drive. Elsewhere, Kenyan officials released a first draft of next year’s budget, with the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan growth, Ethiopian reforms, (another) cyclone in Moz. The latest figures show that Kenya’s economy accelerated in 2018, but a worsening drought will cut growth this year. Elsewhere, a second cyclone is hitting Mozambique, dealing another blow to the... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Stable inflation, Weak Q1 in SA, Emefiele’s legacy Soft inflation readings across Africa this week supported our view that policymakers will cut rates in key economies. New figures added to the evidence that South Africa stumbled in Q1, while Nigerian... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak South Africa weighs on regional outlook Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered in Q1. As we argue in our latest Outlook, problems in South Africa are a key reason why we think that regional... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s holds fire, SA institutional worries grow, weak PMIs Moody’s Ratings delayed the review scheduled for last Friday, leaving South Africa’s rating unchanged. Two new developments this week added to concerns about the country’s fiscal health. That said, we... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA debt back under review, central banks’ dovish tilt The upcoming Moody’s review of South African debt has raised fresh concerns about a sell-off in the country’s bond market. But we think that these fears are overdone. Meanwhile, central bank meetings... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Slow growth in SA, budget quandaries in Nigeria South African retail sales figures released this week provided another sign of economic weakness, and worsening electricity problems will add to economic headwinds. A new budget report has raised... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Investment slump, power prices prolong Eskom pain Growth figures out this week showed that South Africa’s economy slowed at the end of last year. But we think that improved confidence will boost investment this year, causing growth to pick up. The... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
