Africa Economics Weekly SA rand, third wave risks, power problems The South African rand has been a star performer amongst major EM currencies so far this year, but we think that it will suffer one of the biggest losses against the US dollar by year-end. Meanwhile... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Pe)Ace out, budget balancing act in SA, vaccine patents The suspension of Ace Magashule, the Secretary General of South Africa’s ruling ANC party is likely to go some way in strengthening the hand of President Cyril Ramaphosa in an intra-party fight. But... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly India-Covax-Africa channels, price pressures in SA India’s unabating second virus wave risks further delays to vaccine exports through the Covax initiative to much of Sub-Saharan Africa, which would set back economic recoveries further. South Africa... 30th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Wage talks in SA, Nigeria tightens FX restrictions Mounting trade union pressure on South Africa’s government and state-owned enterprises to increase salaries poses a serious threat to the government’s fiscal austerity plans and any signs that the... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Delayed vaccination in SA, dovish SARB, downbeat IMF The announcement this week that South Africa is suspending the roll-out of Johnson&Johnson vaccines, on which it heavily relies, risks further delaying an already slow vaccine campaign. Meanwhile... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt relief stop gaps, South Africa’s jabs A flurry of global action this week to help improve low-income countries’ balance sheets is likely to provide only short-term relief and, in the meantime, efforts to provide longer-lasting help to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Talk of debt risks, fears over gas projects in Mozambique EM debt risks have been in the spotlight again this week following warnings from leaders of several multilateral organizations – and much of Sub-Saharan Africa stands out. The most immediate concerns... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA monetary policy going its own way, naira to and fro South Africa’s monetary policy stance is likely to remain accommodative for some time, going against market expectations and the projection model of the Reserve Bank. In Nigeria, officials continued... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria stuck in stagflation, changing winds in Tanzania The past week has brought further evidence that Nigeria is suffering from stagflation and we suspect it’s a ‘chronic condition’ arising from poor policy choices rather than an ‘acute disease’. In... 19th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eurobond-bonanza? SA’s current account in full swing African policymakers seem to be turning increasingly to international bond markets to finance budget deficits this year, which could add to existing debt vulnerabilities in Ghana and Nigeria... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fewer SA curbs, more SDRs, who knows what in Nigeria Improving virus numbers allowed South Africa to ease containment measures this week, which is likely to inject much-needed momentum into the recovery. A mooted increase in the IMF’s SDR allocations... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investment hopes & dreams in SA, rand in the line of fire South Africa’s push to increase public investment, outlined in the 2021 budget speech, is likely to prove to be a damp squib. Meanwhile, the rand took a beating in recent days amidst a rout in global... 26th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Setting the scene for SA’s budget, Zambia’s rate hike South Africa’s budget speech next Wednesday will be closely watched for any changes in the government’s fiscal consolidation plans - any signs that officials are wavering on austerity could trigger a... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine confusion, the humdrum of SONA Disappointing news from a trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the South African variant of COVID-19 will further complicate vaccination campaigns across the region, and could delay recoveries... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Un)Common Framework, a little cheer in South Africa Zambia has become the latest country – after Chad and Ethiopia – to seek debt restructuring under the G20’s Common Framework, but tough negotiations lie ahead and few other countries are likely to go... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Different IMF takes on fiscal policy, Nigeria’s funding gap The IMF’s campaign encouraging governments to broaden fiscal support to prop up recoveries does not seem to extend far and wide. While the Fund appears to be backing a pause in Kenya’s fiscal... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
