Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, agreed. “While [Nationwide’s September reading] was better than expected, we suspect that the weak labour market and still high mortgage rates will prevent house prices from continuing to grow at this pace over the rest of this year — and the risk is that tax rises in the budget on November 26 weighs on buyer sentiment further in the coming months,” he said. Kerr estimates that house prices will rise by 2 per cent across 2025 and by 5 per cent in 2026, but conceded that “the risks to our forecasts are tilted to the downside”.