Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia heading toward default Political developments and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have compounded concerns over Tunisia’s public finances and cemented our view that the government will default sooner rather than later... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Regional divergence to widen on back of Ukraine war The spillovers from the war in Ukraine will further drive divergence in economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf economies stand to benefit as oil production is likely to be... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt returns to orthodoxy with rate hike and devaluation The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.25%, and devalue the pound by 10% against the dollar suggests that policymakers have finally woken up to the worsening... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Fed tightening affect the Gulf? Central banks in the Gulf will have to follow the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates by virtue of their dollar pegs, which will weigh on domestic demand and recoveries in non-oil sectors... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The war in Ukraine and Saudi oil policy Saudi Arabia has so far resisted pressure from the US to raise oil production in order to dampen prices but, with Russian oil production and exports set to be disrupted, we think that a move in this... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery gets back on track After a small hit to activity earlier in the year on the back of the Omicron wave, Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have strengthened more recently. The Kingdom is not overly exposed... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the war in Ukraine and wheat The Russia-Ukraine crisis has already pushed up global wheat prices and Egypt is particularly vulnerable due to its high dependency on imports from both countries. This could lead to a small widening... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances back under the spotlight Egypt’s government looks set to continue its commitment to tight fiscal policy and bringing down the public debt ratio. However, we hold concerns over the increasing levels of foreign currency debt... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi mortgage boom brings new risks Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up sharply in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. This has not provided much of a boost to property... 15th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE leaves rates on hold, but hikes on the horizon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid stronger price pressures and, if we’re right in expecting the authorities to let the pound weaken gradually... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External imbalances growing in Egypt Egypt’s current account deficit has widened to alarming levels over the past couple of years which partly reflects the impact of the pandemic but it is also a symptom of an increasingly overvalued... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $90pb mean for the Gulf? With oil prices at current levels, nearly all of the Gulf economies are running twin budget and current account surpluses. We think that governments are more likely to save rather than spend this... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on course for strong 2022 Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has hit a bump in the road over the past month or so as the Omicron variant has caused activity in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy to slow. But the experience from other... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Omicron puts a small bump on the road to recovery December’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf softened due to the uncertainty created by the emergence of the Omicron variant. Restrictions have been... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read