Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina

The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued...

25th April 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory

The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that...

17th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama

One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While...

11th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Getting off relatively lightly

Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday - they've ended up facing tariff rates at the lower end of...

4th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Mexico: tariffs, carve outs and Banxico

Mexico is the most exposed country to the auto tariffs that US President Trump announced this week and, while there are carve-outs for USMCA-compliant trade, these will probably provide little relief...

28th March 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Petro’s finance minister #4, new macro forecasts

The replacement of Colombia’s finance minister with a close ally of President Petro reinforces our concerns that fiscal policy won't be tightened sufficiently to stop the public debt ratio from rising...

21st March 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Copom’s conundrum, Argentina & the IMF

Figures out this week underscored the strength of inflation in Brazil, but we think the weakness in the latest economic activity might just be enough to prompt Copom to make the 100bp hike (to 14.25%)...

14th March 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Trump tariffs on Mexico: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs...

7th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey?

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Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown

Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the...

28th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s investment, auto tariffs

The bright spot in the Colombian Q4 GDP data published this week was the rise in fixed investment, but the volatile political situation and low savings rate will limit the rise in the coming years...

21st February 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Another week, another tariff, Chile’s hawks

Some major Latin American economies look among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced by US President Trump...

14th February 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo

While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the...

7th February 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: In the tariff crosshairs

Parts of Latin America have been in President Trump’s firing line over the past week. While there’s uncertainty over exactly what tariffs Mexico could face (if they are imposed tomorrow, as Trump has...

31st January 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Tariffs, transit fees, and terrorists

The Trump administration’s first week has given policymakers in Latin America plenty to fret about. The 25% import tariff threatened on Mexico (as well as Canada) would, if implemented, hit the...

24th January 2025 · 9 mins read