Latin America Economics Weekly Bolivia’s FX crunch, Argentina’s debt shenanigans Bolivia's balance of payments strains intensified this week and, while a sovereign default doesn't appear to be imminent, the country's current policy setting looks unsustainable. Meanwhile, a decree... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Could Copom cut (soon)? Chile’s tax reform We think that investors in Brazil are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate cuts as early as Q2. Despite February’s fall in inflation, core price pressures are still uncomfortably strong... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico hawks Argentina is closing in on the next disbursement of IMF funding but, while the economy met many of last year’s performance criteria, the deal is likely to become rockier this year. Elsewhere, the... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro spooks investors (once again), Brazil’s fiscal rule In Colombia, President Petro’s healthcare reform unveiled this week reinforces our concerns about a worsening public debt trajectory and more interventionist policymaking, and caused the peso to fall... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hawks still rule the roost, BCB threats This week’s larger-than-expected interest rate hike in Mexico alongside comments from central bank officials elsewhere suggest that worries about strong underlying price pressures are putting... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weak survey data, inflation concerns, rate forecasts The batch of survey data for January released this made for pretty depressing reading and reinforces our view that, despite the boost from commodities, regional growth will slow sharply this year... 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Common currency, new FX forecasts, Bolivia’s lithium Argentina and Brazil’s plan to establish a common unit of account to increase bilateral trade and reduce their dependence on the dollar misdiagnoses the main impediments to both goals. Elsewhere... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hot labour market, Argentine bonds Expectations for inflation and interest rates in Brazil have shifted up on the back of Lula’s fiscal plans, but an equally (if not more) concerning development on this front is the surge in wage... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s riots, Peru turmoil, Mexico’s USMCA win Brazil’s financial markets have recovered after an initial drop following the riots in Brasília last Sunday, but we think there are reasons for caution. This is all coming at a time when the economy... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first presidential (mis)steps, Colombian inflation The first speeches and actions by Brazil’s president Lula after his inauguration earlier this week reinforce our view that his presidential term will be characterised by higher public spending and a... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reflecting on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023 This year has been was a surprisingly positive one for Latin America – growth has exceeded even our once above consensus expectations and has surpassed most other EM regions. But the opposite is... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, hope in Argentina, fear in Brazil The new process to re-write Chile's the constitution will probably lead to a more slim-lined charter, but there are still likely to be major economic implications – notably, higher government spending... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A failed coup d’état, inflation worries, Lula’s fiscal plans The end of Castillo’s chaotic presidency in Peru may bring some near-term relief to investors, but it won’t solve the country’s dysfunctional political system. Political gridlock is here to stay and... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s vulnerabilities, Peru’s chaos, Venezuelan oil The easing of some US sanctions will give a small boost to Venezuela’s oil output, but it would take much more on the sanctions front – as well as huge investment – to boost oil production... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
