Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s concerns, Maduro tests the US, Chile’s lithium The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela this week mean that it now... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere... 2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem... 26th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF deal, Chile’s recovery, Nafta turns 30 President Milei's stabilisation plan for Argentina's economy makes it more likely that the IMF will agree to relax the current programme criteria when officials from both sides meet later today. But... 5th January 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s belt tightening, Chile votes, LatAm & the Fed The fiscal tightening announced by Argentina's new administration this week is a step in the right direction but, with public discontent set to intensify, the government's commitment to fiscal... 15th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read