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Key Forecasts
|
Main Economic & Market Forecasts |
|||||||
|
% y/y unless stated |
Latest |
Q1 2024 |
Q2 2024 |
Q3 2024 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
GDP |
+8.4* |
+7.9 |
+7.3 |
+6.7 |
+7.0 |
+6.5 |
+6.8 |
|
Consumer Prices |
+5.1** |
+5.0 |
+4.7 |
+4.0 |
+4.7 |
+4.5 |
+4.5 |
|
Current Account (4Q Sum, % of GDP) |
-0.9* |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
-1.8 |
|
Repo Rate† % |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.50 |
6.25 |
5.75 |
5.50 |
5.50 |
|
Standing Deposit Facility† % |
6.25 |
6.25 |
6.25 |
6.00 |
5.50 |
5.25 |
5.25 |
|
Cash Reserve Ratio† % |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
|
10-Yr Government Bond Yield† % |
7.18 |
7.05 |
6.95 |
6.84 |
6.75 |
6.75 |
6.50 |
|
INR/US$† |
83.4 |
83.4 |
82.3 |
81.5 |
80.0 |
78.0 |
78.0 |
|
Sensex |
74,458 |
73,651 |
74,716 |
75,781 |
76,500 |
82,500 |
78,000 |
|
Sources: Bloomberg, CEIC, Capital Economics, *Q4 2023; **February; †End of period |
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Featured Economists
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Mark Williams
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Mark Williams is Capital Economics' Chief Asia Economist. He leads a team of macroeconomists covering the whole region, while paying particularly close attention himself to developments in China's economy and financial markets, and their implications for the rest of the world. Mark also works closely with William Jackson on the Emerging Markets Service looking at issues common to different parts of the emerging world. Mark has been with Capital Economics since 2007. He was previously Asia economist at HM Treasury, responsible for analysis of the risks and prospects in non-Japan Asia and prior to that lived and worked for several years in Taiwan. He speaks and reads Chinese and has degrees in Chinese and Economics from the universities of Edinburgh and Oxford.
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Shilan Shah
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Shilan Shah is our Deputy Chief EM Economist, with responsibility for researching and presenting on pan-EM themes as well as leading our India service. He joined Capital Economics in 2012 and was based in our Singapore office for several years before returning to London in 2022. Shilan has a Bachelors degree in Economics from University College London and a Masters degree in Politics from the University of Warwick.
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Thamashi De Silva
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Thamashi De Silva is an Assistant Economist focusing on India. Thamashi has a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley and a master’s degree in Economics from University College London.