Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't... 1st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 ‘25, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q1 GDP showed that the Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q , translating into a year-on-year increase of just 2.7% to kick off the year. But with revisions and rebases... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Oil supply concerns retake the reins While various tariff-related carveouts have helped to ease concerns about some of the most acute tail-risks facing global oil demand, support for benchmark prices is being eroded by renewed concerns... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The future of OPEC+, oil prices and the Gulf 1746619200 The OPEC+ decision to ramp up oil production from next month means more downwards pressure on already-weak prices – but how far could they fall? As Donald Trump prepares
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Expectations for oil demand still too strong The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though those forecasts still appear overly rosy. Our base... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariffs add to existing oil demand woes The escalation of the US-China trade war continued to buffet commodity prices this week. While the final shape of trade policy remains uncertain, demand shocks in the world’s two largest oil consumers... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices? President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external... 10th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (April 2025) Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride but, on net, many prices remain lower than before “Liberation Day”. In the coming months, our base case is that the 90-day pause on tariffs will be... 10th April 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market amid tariff mayhem The lasting fallout on oil demand from President trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs and subsequent retaliation, coupled with OPEC+’s plan to quicken supply increases, pose a major downside to oil prices... 9th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft end to Q1 March’s batch of PMIs across much of the Middle East and North Africa came in softer as worries about a global trade war weighed on activity. Those concerns will have only mounted in the wake of... 7th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
