Commodities Update

Aside from oil, China’s imports on solid ground

China’s commodity imports mostly rose in November, but there was a sharp drop in crude oil imports. We think that non-oil commodity import volumes will hold up in the coming months on the back of...

Energy Update

Oil prices to fall by the end of next year

Rising OPEC+ output in Q2 2024 should leave global crude supply less constrained than we had previously expected. This, together with only modest growth in global oil demand, should push the crude...

Commodities Weekly Wrap

OPEC+’s last stand

The voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ this week will support oil prices in the first quarter of next year but there is clearly dissent among the ranks. We think OPEC+’s next move will be to...

Commodities Update

China’s PMIs may be understating commodity demand

China PMI surveys suggest that the economy flatlined in November, but there was good news for commodity demand with the relative strength in the construction PMI. We suspect that underlying activity...

Commodities Rapid Response

OPEC+ Meeting: Further cuts, but a price rally is unlikely

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

COP28 and OPEC+, Saudi secures 2030 World Expo

While COP28 is getting underway in Dubai, attention may be drawn instead to events in Vienna today, where OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to reduce its oil production by a further 1mn bpd. This would...

Energy Update

Guyana oil production in for the long haul

Guyana’s oil production looks set to grow quickly over the next few years even if the total volume can only play a small role in raising global supply. That said, substantial reserves and low break...

Commodities Weekly Wrap

OPEC+ won’t let prices slide

Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap

The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to...

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Another sour week for oil, precious metals to shine

Gold and silver prices soared this week on renewed optimism that the Fed had hiked to the peak of its monetary policy mountain. We expect prices to rise further when interest rates begin to be cut...

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end

The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the...

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya default risks fall, Dangote oil refinery ramps-up

Kenya’s partial payment of its $2bn Eurobond will improve its chances of avoiding a sovereign default next year. Extra IMF funds and an improved balance of payment position will also help, but...

Africa Economics Update

Assessing public debt risks in Africa

In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover...

Commodities Update

China’s commodity imports holding up

China’s import data for October indicated that its demand for commodities remains robust but we think that further growth in the next couple of months is likely to be modest.

Commodities Overview Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy and precious metal prices will remain volatile while there is a risk that the...