Capital Daily

What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation

While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy...

2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output...

30th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East

The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own...

30th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling...

27th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Update

What to make of Saudi Arabia’s oil market plans?

Today’s news that Saudi Arabia will proceed with unwinding its voluntary oil output cuts from December does not change our thinking on the oil market balance; we still expect the market to be in a...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy, Egypt’s debt return, Israel-Lebanon

Saudi Arabia is reportedly set to change tack and raise oil output to recapture lost market share, which would provide a mechanical lift to GDP and the Kingdom is in a strong position to weather any...

26th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

New China stimulus won’t lift commodity demand

While the announcement of new stimulus measures by Chinese officials coincided with increases in many commodity prices, the package does not materially alter the outlook for China’s commodity demand...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint

A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and...

25th September 2024 · 19 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Soft demand + extra supply ⇒ lower prices

We expect most commodity prices to fall next year and our forecasts are generally below consensus. The biggest upside risk to our energy price forecasts stems from the potential for an escalation in...

24th September 2024 · 24 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong)

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say...

23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read

Event

Drop-in: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 – Where it’s going right (and wrong)

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Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme is passed its halfway point with clear evidence of major societal and cultural changes.

Commodities Weekly

Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways

For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SARB to cut, oil prices slump

The current make-up of South Africa's MPC means that next week's rate decision will be a close call, but we expect the Reserve Bank to embark on an easing cycle. How quickly rates come down partly...

13th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read