Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Shell oil sale, SARB 25bp or 50bp cut next? The Nigerian authorities rejection of Shell’s sale of its onshore oil business marked the latest attempt by a multinational to divest from Nigeria – and the prospect of lower foreign investment makes... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will... 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil... 18th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Dim outlook for energy equities This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming... 18th October 2024 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps? With the means, motive and opportunity for Saudi Arabia to undergo a reversal in oil policy falling into place, this Update thinks through the possible ramifications of such a move. In short... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the... 14th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia tees up fiscal consolidation for 2025 Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Pre-Budget statement provided the first clear signs that officials are accepting that they need to pare back on some of their ambitious spending goals, which supports our view that... 8th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Risks to oil supply take centre stage With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could... 4th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War escalates; all eyes on Israel Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
