Hammond’s luck is in, rates on hold, Brexit a hindrance

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will hand the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, a get-out-of-jail-free card by slashing its forecast for the deficit this year in Monday’s Budget. This will allow Hammond to deliver the pledged increase health spending and still meet his near-term fiscal targets. And while the OBR will probably forecast that the deficit will only fall very slowly in the years ahead, our more upbeat view of the outlook suggests that the Chancellor may yet take the public finances into the black in the mid-2020s.