The 10-year/2-year gilt yield curve is closer to inverting than at any point since March 2020, supporting our view that GDP growth will slow this year. And while a yield curve inversion isn’t a good leading indicator of a recession in the UK, it’s clear the downside risks to our growth forecasts are mounting.
Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re discussing Russian energy imports and Europe’s energy needs in this special 20-minute briefing on one of the big sticking points in the western response to the war in Ukraine. Register here.
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