Annual property returns hit a seven-year high

Commercial property ended last year strongly. Annual rental growth climbed to a five-year high, while annual total returns crossed the 20% level. This was largely the result of dynamism in industrial, though all sectors saw positive annual returns, even retail. But we think it will be a struggle to repeat this stellar performance in 2022, as economic headwinds and structural changes weigh on rental growth and the scope for further yield reductions reduces. As a result, we expect returns to be significantly lower in 2022.