Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks

There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to global energy markets and the Saudi economy should be limited. But if the disruption were to last for several months, we estimate that Saudi GDP could contract by more than 20% y/y in Q4. And the attacks will further inflame tensions in the region, increasing the risk of a US-Iran conflict.