Gulf boosted by higher oil output

Oil production figures for July, the first that should capture the impact of revisions to the OPEC deal in June, support our view that growth in the Gulf will strengthen in the coming quarters. Oil output rose by 3-5% in most countries after the agreement was modified, and we think higher oil output could boost GDP growth by an average of about 2.0-2.5%-pts in the Gulf over the coming quarters. Accordingly, while the region’s recovery took a pause in Q2, it should gather pace in the coming months.