Russian ruble’s tug of war, semiconductor headaches

The threat of Western sanctions on Russia is clouding the near-term outlook, but the recent sharp increase in oil prices suggests that fiscal policy may become a bit more supportive this year and that there's scope for a rally in Russian asset prices. Meanwhile, the global shortage of semiconductors is threatening the recovery in industry in Central Europe. Chip shortages have already disrupted production across parts of Europe and, if supply constraints worsen, this may add to concerns about high inflation across the region.