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Next move in Hungarian interest rates should be down

Today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to keep interest rates on hold at 6.00% for the fourth consecutive meeting underlines how inflation fears have slipped down policymakers’ list of concerns. The market has scaled back its tightening expectations and now sees rates remaining on hold until the end of 2012. But we still think that the next move in rates may be down rather than up.

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